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How did this year's rookies do in terms of PER?

4/28/2013

As I wrote about extensively last year, rookie PER is an incredibly valuable statistic for predicting just how good a player can eventually end up becoming. Future star NBA players almost always post decent PERs right away. For big men that means a 15+ PER as a rookie, and for guards and small forwards that usually means a rookie PER of at least 13.

So how did this year's class of rookies stack up? There are relatively few surprises; let's take a look at some of the notables:

-Anthony Davis posted an exceptional 21.7 PER. Davis' excellent rookie season flew under the radar, but this guy is just as good as we all thought.

-Andre Drummond only played 1243 minutes, but from a PER perspective he was just as good as Davis. The future looks very bright for Drummond; besides Davis he is the most promising rookie in his class.

-Damian Lillard had an impressive 16.4 PER and played a ton of minutes; the likely rookie of the year clearly has star potential, particularly if he can improve defensively.

-Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Bradley Beal and Dion Waiters - picks #2, #3 & #4 in the 2012 Draft - all managed to have PERs above 13. This is important, and shows that all three do indeed at least have the potential to turn into All-Stars. That said, it would not be surprising if none of them ever achieved that status.

-Pick #5, Thomas Robinson, looks to be a relative bust. His 10.9 rookie PER is very poor for a big man.

-Jonas Valanciunas had a fine 15.6 PER; he looks to be one of the better players from the 2011 Draft.

-John Henson did not play much, but his 18.2 PER is very promising.

-Orlando's Andrew Nicholson and Kyle O'Quinn both posted PERs above 15. They might have more potential than folks expect.

-Jared Sullinger was having a decent rookie season for Boston before he went down with injury, but his 13.5 PER implies he will never turn into a truly dominant low post presence.

-Similarly, Harrison Barnes and Terrence Ross both showed flashes of excellence this season, but their poor PERs make it highly unlikely they ever turn into star NBA players.

-Mo Harkless posted a respectable 12.5 PER as a 19 year old while playing almost 2000 minutes. That's impressive, but the fact he couldn't get to 13+ still makes me doubt whether he can ever truly dominate in the NBA.

-Terrence Jones played very limited minutes for Houston, but posted a good PER. He is definitely worth keeping an eye on.

-Evan Fournier's 13.8 PER is a good sign for a twenty year old swingman.

-John Jenkins quietly managed to post a 13.0 PER while getting minutes for Atlanta this season.

-Big men Arnett Moultrie, Mike Scott and Quincy Acy are all longshots to ever become exceptional players in the league, but their 15+ PERs at least imply they could be very useful.

-Patrick Beverly was drafted back in 2009 and is 24, but his 15.4 PER shows he is a player with potential promise.

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Quick Playoffs Preview

4/18/2013

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While the regular season taught us numerous small and interesting things, it did little to shake the big picture of the league. Besides the epic-fail of the Lakers, no team developments were shocking. And even the Lakers' surprising woes make sense when put into context, given L.A.'s injuries and age issues.

Before the season Miami was the favorite to win the title, and they still are. OKC, San Antonio and the Clippers are all legit contenders. Memphis is a fringe contender. Every other team is an extreme long shot to make it to the Finals.

Obviously in the East, given that Miami is the only dominant team, something weird could happen, and a team like Indiana or the Knicks could make the Finals. But this is highly improbable.

So, in my eyes, it is looking like we will have a rematch of last year's Finals, with the same outcome. I do think many people are undervaluing how dangerous the Spurs and Clippers can be in the postseason, but OKC is still my slight favorite to make it out of the West. The "real" season will start in a few days, and it should be fun.

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A few quick thoughts on the best prospects in the 2013 NBA Draft

4/16/2013

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I have been writing about the best prospects in the upcoming NBA Draft all season long, and there were a few things initially that seemed odd about this year in terms of when superior prospects began to separate themselves from the pack.

Through January, only Nerlens Noel seemed like a surefire top prospect, and he was the no-brainer first pick. But Noel then proceeded to go down with a serious knee injury, which slightly cast a cloud over his draft stock. He still might deserve to be selected first, but his ACL injury is unsettling.

However, at around the same time of Noel's injury, three other players elevated their game to a point where each could realistically be considered worthy of being selected first in June: Victor Oladipo, Marcus Smart and Otto Porter.

Noel, Oladipo, Smart and Porter have been the four best prospects in the draft for two months, in my opinion. I feel confident all four will turn into good pros, and they all have legitimate star potential. Any of them would provide me with comfort if I were picking early.

This is much more than I could say about the previous two drafts, where only Anthony Davis and Kyrie Irving seemed worthy of being picked very high. The four top prospects this year might not be as great as Irving and Davis, but they all seem very promising.

So the 2013 Draft feels different than the last few years, and that will probably end up being a good thing. There are more "sure things" this year, even though such a thing does not really exist when it comes to drafting.

In regards to the other top prospects, there are quite a few interesting players out there. Trey Burke's stock has shot up recently, to where it should have been six weeks ago, but I still have slight reservations about his size, and the fact that he shot the ball considerably worse the latter portion of the season is not a good sign. Similarly, as talented as Ben McLemore might be, his relative lack of scoring for an elite shooting guard prospect makes me believe that his stock is overrated.

After the top 6 or so prospects, the uncertainty increases rather dramatically in my eyes. This is not a bad thing, just the reality of how most NBA Drafts work.

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Steven Adams is an intriguing prospect

4/3/2013

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I feel like many people have been sleeping on Steven Adams; in my opinion he deserves to be selected in the top 10. Here's something I wrote for BR about it.

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Why are we talking about John Wall's extension now?

4/1/2013

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Listen, I understand that it is fun to speculate about future contracts, who is worth max money, and all that other assorted jazz. But there is absolutely no sane reason that so many different sources should be talking about John Wall's possible max extension with the Wizards right now, in the early Spring of 2013.

Wall is eligible to sign an extension with the Wizards up until before the beginning of the '13-14 regular season. If the Wizards and Wall can't agree to an extension at that point, Wall will become a restricted free agent in July of 2014. The important word there is restricted. Even if another team offers Wall a max contract of approximately 4 years, $60 million, Washington can match it.

In short, if the Wizards want to keep Wall, they can do so, no matter what. They really do not have to make a decision on whether Wall is worth max money until the Summer of 2014. If they do decide at that point he is worth the max, they can give him a four or five year max deal.

Giving very early max contract extensions to players still on rookie contracts strikes me as daft. Especially in cases like Wall's, where the player very well might not be worth a max extension. The only bad thing that can happen by waiting to sign such a player is to seriously alienate him. But such fears I feel are heavily overblown, especially in a situation like this, where Wall is very self-aware of how he ranks on the point guard totem pole.

Actually, Wall's sober assessment of how good he currently is as a player makes this whole situation even more astounding. Ty Lawson and Stephen Curry both signed for far less than the max this past Fall, and if I were the Wizards I would certainly try to get Wall to sign a similar deal to those two. The discussion should not be whether they offer him a four or five year max deal, but whether Wall will accept a 4 year, $50 million deal.

Don't get me wrong - Wall is nice player, and he might be worth a max contract. But now, and the next six months, is not the time to decide this. Wall is a serious injury concern, and his play has only truly warranted a huge contract recently, and not in his first two and a half years in the league. The Wizards need to be realistic and understand that there is absolutely no point in giving Wall a max deal before the regular season opens next year, and that they would probably be best served to wait to give such a massive contract to Wall until 2014. Being the Wizards, I fully expect them not to heed this advice whatsoever.

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NBA Focus

How did this year's rookies do in terms of PER?

Quick Playoffs Preview

A few quick thoughts on the best prospects in the 2013 NBA Draft

Steven Adams is an intriguing prospect

Why are we talking about John Wall's extension now?

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