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Atlantic Division Explosion

6/28/2013

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Last night's draft and trades were so crazy it's hard to digest it all, but one thing is sure: The Atlantic Division just profoundly changed. Philadelphia needs to be commended for having an incredible night that potentially sets them up beautifully for the next decade. Noel plus another first rounder in 2014 is a steal for Jrue Holiday. I don't understand New Orleans' thinking at all, and I feel Pelicans' fans will long rue this day. It's absolutely stunning Noel dropped to #6, even if his health is in question, and Sam Hinkie absolutely nailed it last night with his moves.

The Boston-Brooklyn deal was surprising, yet at the same time feels almost inevitable when you think about it. If Brooklyn can stay healthy the next two years they should be very good, but the Nets' payroll is insane, and they have pretty much mortgaged their future all for the hope of somehow being able to squeak by Miami the next year or two. This is how Billy King and the Nets operate, and while with their payroll it is somewhat understandable, it is also terrible long-term thinking, and the definition of high-risk management.

If the Nets burn out in a few years, full of bloated contracts, they have forsaken the right to draft young players who potentially could ressurrect the franchise. And that is why Danny Ainge and the Celtics did this trade. It's not so much about the 2014 first round pick as it is the 2016, (potential) 2017 and 2018 picks. Gerald Wallace's big, bad contract is a serious price to pay, but the Celtics' thinking is that it is worth it given all the draft pick options they have been handed.

So I laud Hinkie particularly, and also Ainge, for recognizing that there is no point in going half-way with a rebuild, and for understanding that when you want to become exceptional, you first usually have to weather through the muck. June 27, 2013 is going to be remembered for a long time.

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A few thoughts prior to the draft

6/26/2013

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I just posted on B/R my personal opinion on who
the 20 best prospects are in the 2013 NBA Draft.  And I don't have much to add. Some years I get very excited about players who are likely to drop deep into the second round, who I think in turn will become very good pros, but this year I have no such feelings.  The 20 players I included in the article are the only players who really excite me, potential wise. They are, in order:

1. Nerlens Noel
 
 2. Victor Oladipo

3. Otto Porter
 
 4. Trey Burke

5. Ben McLemore

 6. Steven Adams

7. C.J. McCollum

8. Michael Carter-Williams

 9. Anthony Bennett

10. Rudy Gobert

11. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

 12. Kelly Olynyk
 
13. Alex Len

14. Tony Mitchell

 15. Cody Zeller

16. Jeff Withey

17. Giannis Adetokunbo

18. Archie Goodwin

 19. Shane Larkin

 20. Lucas Nogueira

Maybe all those players will be first round picks; at worst only one or two will drop past pick #35. After these top prospects I have a hard time ranking what players I prefer. There are the solid college veterans who will probably be decent pros (like Gorgui Dieng, Nate Wolters and Reggie Bullock), unknown foreign gambles (like Dennis Schroeder, Sergey Karasev and Livio Jean-Charles) and young college gambles (like Shabazz Muhammad and Ricky Ledo.) I don't have a firm opinion on many of these players - they may be good, they may be busts - and there is not much a difference between who I think the 25th best player is in this draft compared to the 45th. I will say I like two undersized power forwards - Arsalan Kazemi and Richard Howell - as potential late second round/undrafted gems. But that's about it. It's an interesting draft, and it's been fun watching it unfold the past eight months. Enjoy tomorrow night.
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The Finals matchup

6/4/2013

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We are going to be hearing an awful lot about Spurs-Heat over the next few days, and let me quickly just share a few thoughts.

Miami was the favorite going into the year. They were certainly the favorite going into the playoffs. And I am too stubborn to reverse course now - I will stick with my season long prediction that they will win it all. Apparently so will the odds makers - Miami is a somewhat heavy favorite going into the series. But I would not be surprised in the least if San Antonio wins the Finals.  And they might win rather easily.

Ever since the Summer of 2010 the Heat have been the story of the league. Their initial struggles, and eventual success, has been the talk of the NBA for three years now. And the Heat narrative continues to change. After rampaging through most of the regular season, Miami has looked off-kilter for much of the postseason. I don't mean to take anything away from the Pacers - who put up a valiant fight - but the Heat have not been the same since Dwyane Wade got injured. And on top of Wade's injury, Chris Bosh has played relatively poorly recently. This reality has meant that for much of the playoffs Miami's entire offense has completely revolved around LeBron James' greatness, not unlike how it was for James back in his Cleveland days.

I find all of this fascinating. James initially relocated to Miami to play with far superior talent, but three years later there are serious parallels to his old Cavaliers' teams. James' skills and on-court mindset have certainly matured since his time with the Cavs, but he now finds himself in a similar situation - one where he is part of an excellent defensive team, but one lacking in offensive firepower besides himself.

Obviously, it wasn't supposed to go down like this. Despite some ailments, Wade was still close to his normal All-NBA self for the regular season, and Bosh was an ideal third, complementary star. But all that has gone down the tubes in May and early June. Wade is hurt, and not close to being the player we expect him to be. And Bosh, after three years of taking a supporting role, seems unable to conjure up the alpha dominance needed to assert himself as the second strong offensive weapon that Miami needs behind James in place of the injured Wade. Like I said, the entire situation makes for a compelling storyline.

If the Heat are to beat the Spurs, LeBron James is going to have to be absolutely superior. The problem for Miami is that James could do that, and they still might lose. The Spurs are a great team. I could write 10,000 words on them if I had the time. Last year they looked great and then freakishly collapsed against OKC. This year is different. Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili are all still stars, the coaching and supporting players are superb, and San Antonio is much healthier than Miami. It should be a hell of a series. Enjoy. 
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