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Review of the 2004 NBA Draft

8/31/2012

Looking at the 2004 Draft we see that it is much more "normal" than the prior year. It is not overly top-heavy, and does not have a wealth of superior talent. It does, however, have excellent depth in the first round.

There were five All-Stars from this draft: Dwight Howard (picked #1), Devin Harris (#5), Luol Deng (#7), Andre Iguoldala (#9) and Jameer Nelson (#20.)

Howard easily ends up being the best player from 2004. There is a large gap between him and everybody else, although this was not apparent at the time, and Emeka Okafor was almost picked before him.

What strikes me about 2004 is the high amount of borderline star talent available. Besides the All-Stars mentioned, we also have Al Jefferson (#15), Josh Smith (#17), Kevin Martin (#26) and Anderson Varejao (#30.) So there were a plethora of very good - but not quite upper echelon - players.

Okafor was the second pick in this draft, and he has not lived up to high expectations. Ben Gordon was a mediocre choice at #3. Shaun Livingston was picked fourth, and like Jay Williams, saw his career destroyed by a single injury. Harris was picked fifth and has had a productive career.

There were many other solid value picks made in the first round: Andris Biedrins (#11), Kris Humphries (#14), J.R. Smith (#18), Delonte West (#24), Tony Allen (#25), Sasha Vujacic (#27) and Beno Udrih (#28) were all good picks given their draft position. So overall the first round of 2004 again shows us the vast amount of depth often available in a single draft.

Varejao, the first pick in round two, was obviously an excellent selection. There were not that many other noteworthy second rounders; Chris Duhon (#38) and Trevor Ariza (#43) are the only other two players worth mentioning. And unlike most years, nobody went undrafted who went on to have a solid and long NBA career.

So while 2004 was hardly a spectacular draft, it was deep. It produced a good number of valuable players, many of whom were picked after the lottery. A rough approximation of the top ten players in this draft, with their actual pick number in parenthesis:

1. Dwight Howard (1)
2. Andre Iguodala (9)
3. Al Jefferson (15)
4. Josh Smith (17)
5. Kevin Martin (26)
6. Luol Deng (7)
7. Devin Harris (5)
8. Anderson Varejao (30)
9. Jameer Nelson (20)
10. Emeka Okafor (2)

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Review of the 2003 NBA Draft

8/23/2012

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We now come to the 2003 Draft, widely considered to be one of the best ever. There were eight All-Stars from this draft: LeBron James (picked #1), Carmelo Anthony (#3), Chris Bosh (#4), Dwyane Wade (#5), Chris Kaman (#6), David West (#18), Josh Howard (#29) and Mo Williams (#47.)

Finally, we see a draft that is truly top-heavy. The four best players were all picked in the top five - the first time anything remotely like this has happened in these reviews. Because of this, Darko Milicic is considered one of the worst busts ever at #2. When people (mistakenly) think that all the best players go very early in a draft, this is the kind of year they are thinking of.

Obviously what is most striking about 2003 is the star power up top, but the other reason this draft is held in such high regard is the amount of depth it provided. Besides the players already mentioned, we have Kirk Hinrich (pick #7), Nick Collison (#12), Luke Ridnour (#14), Boris Diaw (#21), Carlos Delfino (#25), Kendrick Perkins (#27) and Leandro Barbosa (#28) all picked in the first round.

The second round also produced many very solid pros besides just Mo Williams: Steve Blake (#38), Zaza Pachulia (#42), Matt Bonner (#45), James Jones (#49) and Kyle Korver (#51) were all superb second round picks. We can also add that Marquis Daniels went undrafted and has had a good career.

So 2003 had an abundance of quality throughout the draft. It produced major stars up top, and then kept producing solid players throughout. This draft is also atypical in that all the superior talent was taken off the board very early, and that is probably why it is remembered so fondly.

A rough approximation of the top ten players in this draft, with their actual pick number in parenthesis:

1. LeBron James (1)
2. Dwyane Wade (5)
3. Carmelo Anthony (3)
4. Chris Bosh (4)
5. David West (18)
6. Josh Howard (29)
7. Mo Williams (47)
8. Kirk Hinrich (7)
9. Chris Kaman (6)
10. Leandro Barbosa (28)

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Review of the 2002 NBA Draft

8/19/2012

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Continuing with our draft reviews we now come to the 2002 Draft. There were four All-Stars from his draft: Yao Ming (picked #1), Amare Stoudemire (#9), Caron Butler (#10) and Carlos Boozer (#34.)

This draft appears relatively weak, but still yielded plenty of good pros. Like several of the drafts we have already looked at, 2002 is not top-heavy. Stoudemire, if he ever played in college, probably would have been picked much earlier than #9, not unlike Tracy McGrady's situation in 1997.

But as it was, besides Ming, the top five in 2002 was a disappointment. Jay Williams, the second pick, is a great example of how one bad injury can destroy a promising player's career. Mike Dunleavy and Drew Gooden, picked third and fourth, have had underwhelming careers given their draft positions. And Nikoloz Tskitishvili was a disaster as the fifth pick.

Overall the first round of this draft was not that strong, but there were some other pretty good selections we should notice: Nene Hilario (#7), Tayshaun Prince (#23), Nenad Kristic (#24) and John Salmons (#26) were all nice value picks.

Boozer stands out as a truly exceptional second round pick, and an example of a fine college player who rather inexplicably drops far lower than one would expect. This makes three future All-Stars selected in the thirties between 2001 and 2002, proof enough that the early second round needs to be taken more seriously.

Luis Scola did not play in the NBA till 2007, but nonetheless he was a steal with the 55th pick. Flip Murray (#41), Matt Barnes (#45) and Darius Songaila (#49) were other late picks that have had pretty good careers.

Udonis Haslem stands out as an excellent undrafted player from his class. Reggie Evans, Damien Wilkins and Jannero Pargo also went undrafted and ended up having pretty productive careers. At this point it should be clear that decent players are almost always available after the last pick in the second round.

Here is the approximate order of the top ten players from the 2002 draft, with their actual selection number in parenthesis:

1. Amare Stoudemire (9)
2. Yao Ming (1)
3. Carlos Boozer (34)
4. Caron Butler (10)
5. Tayshaun Prince (23)
6. Nene Hilario (7)
7. Luis Scola (55)
8. Udonis Haslem (undrafted)
9. Mike Dunleavy (3)
10. Drew Gooden (4)

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Fallout from the Howard trade

8/13/2012

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Well, the "Dwightmare" has finally ended. My initial reaction to the huge four team trade last Friday is not that different than this reaction or this one. I don't, at this point, have much more to add that those two popular articles have not already done a good job pointing out. That said, there are a few more things I find interesting about the trade:

-Obviously the Lakers (who are lucky to be allowed to be this absurdly far over the cap) seem better on paper with the deal, but I am not so sure they are even the favorites in the Western Conference next year. OKC will be hungry and is possibly just as talented, and the Spurs seem too good to just be lightly dismissed. The largest concern for the Lakers is health. This is an old team. It will be tough to keep the four stars healthy (and we already know that Howard is currently hurt.) Injuries should not be a significant concern during the regular season, but if one or more of these guys is badly hurt going into the playoffs, L.A.'s chances of making the Finals are obviously diminished.

The more fascinating aspect of the trade is how a team with Steve Nash, Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol and Howard will play together. Nash is maybe the best chemistry guy in the business, but Bryant and Howard have had some major chemistry issues throughout their career. Clearly having four stars guarantees you major success, but besides from the health question, the biggest factor that will decide the Lakers' greatness will be on-court chemistry.

This Lakers team could be potentially transcendent to watch. In many ways that is what we, as true fans of the game, most want to see. But we know, particularly after what happened to the Heat in 2010-11, that apparent superiority often does not play out the way it is supposed to. The Heat team of 2010-11 was one of the most disappointing of the modern era. This was not just because they failed in the playoffs, but because they utterly failed to accomplish aesthetically on the court what we all thought would be possible. Only now is Miami beginning to live up to our initial expectations, and still not consistently, even with a title in hand.

I am a realist, and try to appreciate the NBA game for what it is, but still get disappointed when I see a team not come close to maximizing its (imagined) potential. The 2012-13 Lakers have a real chance to be very special. But I think there is a better chance that they don't make the Finals, and are remembered as a large footnote, and nothing truly historic.

-Philadelphia got the second best player in this trade in Andrew Bynum, and we can applaud them for taking a gamble and acquiring an All-Star center. To get Bynum, Philadelphia had to give up a slightly overpaid (but very good) Andre Iguodala, as well as somewhat promising prospects in Nikola Vucevic and Moe Harkless. They also had to take on Jason Richardson and give away a future draft pick.

The success of this deal for Philadelphia hinges almost entirely on Bynum's health. When healthy, Bynum has proven himself to be the second best true center in the league, and worthy of a huge salary. But he has never stayed healthy. I think the Sixers will be happy with this trade if they can re-sign Bynum and if he can be healthy for the playoffs the next half decade. But that seems a stretch, as does the odds that Bynum consistently can play more than 60+ games each of the next four or five years. So while I commend the Sixers for going all out and getting an All-Star center, it is not wise to think of Bynum as anything less than a very serious risk over the long-term. The job of Philadelphia will be to accept this, and to act accordingly.

-The Nuggets are getting a lot of praise for their part in this deal, and it's easy to see why. Iguodala is a higher-level player than both Arron Afflalo and Al Harrington, and has a much shorter contract. Denver also had to surrender two picks (a conditional first and a second rounder) in the deal, but it was worthwhile to jettison two expensive long-term commitments to average players, and get a borderline All-Star in return.

-Orlando, on the other hand, is rightfully getting killed for making this deal. There is not much to like here if you are a fan of the Magic. The hope is that Vucevic, Harkless and all these future draft picks will amount to something impressive a few years from now, but I have my doubts. It seems none of the future picks Orlando will be receiving will be in the top ten, and Rob Hennigan has better be as good a drafter as Sam Presti if he expects to create something great from the haul he just received. Disturbingly, despite receiving five future picks, only two of those picks are in the next two drafts. At least the Magic have comfort knowing they will probably have their own top 5 pick in 2013.

It didn't have to be like this obviously. Both the rumored New Jersey and Houston offers for Howard seemed sweeter, and it definitely seemed as if the Rockets specifically were willing to give Orlando more attractive assets than they ended up with.

If I were the Magic I would simply have waited. I know this "Dwightmare" was becoming more and more of a public relations disaster for everybody involved, but Orlando should have held out as long as it took to get a better deal done. Howard was going to receive much more of the flak for the situation than the Magic. I truly believe, like most NBA executives and fans, that Orlando should have gotten (much) more. The reality today is that they have traded Dwight Howard, and are immediately one of the more irrelevant and least interesting teams in the league. I don't see how they can think that is a good thing.

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Review of the 2001 NBA Draft

8/10/2012

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After the scarcity of star power the previous year, the 2001 Draft brings us back to a more typical output. There were seven All-Stars in this draft: Pau Gasol (picked #3), Joe Johnson (#10), Zach Randolph (#19), Gerald Wallace (#25), Tony Parker (#28), Gilbert Arenas (#30) and Mehmet Okur (#37.)

The best players in this draft seem almost evenly dispersed across the top 40. So 2001 was not top heavy at all, and again indicates the semi-randomness of the draft order. Obviously it is better to have a late lottery pick than an early second rounder - but in retrospect we see often it doesn't matter nearly as much as we think it should.

Kwame Brown was a huge bust with the first selection. Tyson Chandler was a solid pick at #2. Eddy Curry was a relative disappointment at #4. Jason Richardson was a fine pick at #5.

There are several other first rounders that have had excellent careers: Shane Battier (#6), Richard Jefferson (#13), Troy Murphy (#14), Brendan Haywood (#20) and Samuel Dalembert (#26) all should be taken note of.

Arenas and Okur were both obviously great second round picks. Also Earl Watson and Bobby Simmons, picked 39th and 41st respectively, are probably at least worth mentioning as second rounders who carved out long and decent careers.

The undrafted class of 2001 is pretty impressive as well. Carlos Arroyo, Charlie Bell, Mo Evans and Jamario Moon all have had long careers.

Here is the approximate order of the top ten players from the 2001 draft, with their actual selection number in parenthesis:

1. Pau Gasol (3)
2. Tony Parker (28)
3. Joe Johnson (10)
4. Zach Randolph (19)
5. Tyson Chandler (2)
6. Gilbert Arenas (30)
7. Richard Jefferson (13)
8. Gerald Wallace (25)
9. Mehmet Okur (37)
10. Shane Battier (6)

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NBA Focus

Review of the 2004 NBA Draft

Review of the 2003 NBA Draft

Review of the 2002 NBA Draft

Fallout from the Howard trade

Review of the 2001 NBA Draft

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