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Review of the 2009 NBA Draft

9/30/2012

While seemingly not as strong as the previous year, the 2009 Draft is still impressive. So far only Blake Griffin (picked #1) has made an All-Star game, but James Harden (#3), Tyreke Evans (#4), Ricky Rubio (#5), Stephen Curry (#7), Brandon Jennings (#10) and Ty Lawson (#18) all have to be considered legitimate candidates to make the team in the upcoming few years.

What is striking about this draft in the ample supply of quality point guards available: Rubio, Curry, Jennings, Lawson, Jrue Holiday (#17), Jeff Teague (#19), Eric Maynor (#20), Darren Collison (#21), Roddy Beaubois (#25) and Toney Douglas (#29) were all picked in the first round. A few of these players might flounder, but still that is an impressive list of point guards for a single draft.

Griffin, despite injury problems, has lived up to the hype as the first selection. Hasheem Thabeet (pick #2) has been an utter bust, and his selection looks terrible because Harden, Evans and Rubio immediately follow him. For the second straight year, we have a draft that seems very strong in the top five.

Tyler Hansbrough (#13) and Taj Gibson (#26) are the other two players from this first round that have provided excellent value. Clearly, especially with all the point guards, round one has excellent depth, and this carries on into round two.

The second round of 2009 is impressively solid: Dante Cunningham (#33), DeJuan Blair (#37), Jonas Jerebeko (#39), Jodie Meeks (#41), Marcus Thornton (#43), Chase Budinger (#44) and Danny Green (#46) have all provided excellent value for where they were selected. Likewise, Wes Matthews went undrafted and has been a fine player.

So 2009 has very impressive depth, particularly at the point guard position. Whether it is to be remembered for that or its top heaviness has yet to be determined. A rough approximation of the top ten players from 2009, with their actual selection number in parenthesis:

1. Blake Griffin (1)
2. James Harden (3)
3. Ty Lawson (18)
4. Stephen Curry (7)
5. Ricky Rubio (5)
6. Tyreke Evans (4)
7. Brandon Jennings (10)
8. Jrue Holiday (17)
9. Taj Gibson (26)
10. Marcus Thornton (43)

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Review of the 2008 NBA Draft

9/24/2012

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The 2008 Draft is probably the best since 2003. A lot can change in the next few seasons, but the superiority of 2008 is already evident. It is very strong up top, and has thus far yielded four All-Stars: Derrick Rose (picked #1), Russell Westbrook (#4), Kevin Love (#5) and Roy Hibbert (#17.)

What is particularly impressive about this draft, besides the three fantastic players in the top five, is its depth: Danilo Gallinari (#6), Eric Gordon (#7), D.J. Augustin (#9), Brook Lopez (#10), Jason Thompson (#12), Robin Lopez (#15), Marreese Speights (#16), Hibbert (#17), JaVale McGee (#18), Ryan Anderson (#21), Courtney Lee (#22), Serge Ibaka (#24), Nicolas Batum (#25) and George Hill (#26) all seem like good value picks for where they were selected in the first round. A number of these players will probably end up having only adequate pro careers, but a few of them could develop into borderline stars given the right situation.

So the first round is impressively deep, and it starts with how great Rose, Westbrook and Love already have been in their young careers. Like 2003, all the best players went in the top five. Michael Beasley (picked #2) was in contention with Rose to be the top pick, and his lack of success has been perplexing. O.J. Mayo, the third pick, just seems to be an overrated prospect when we look back on it.

The second round further amplifies the depth of 2008: Nikola Pekovic (#31), Mario Chalmers (#34), DeAndre Jordan (#35), Omer Asik (#36), Luc Mbah a Moute (#37) and Goran Dragic (#45) were all excellent choices. So we have tremendous depth in this draft to go along with the star power up top. It also is worth mentioning Anthony Morrow, Gary Forbes and Reggie Williams as undrafted players from this year, again proving that adequate players are almost always available even after the last pick.

So 2008 was loaded. A rough approximation of the top ten players from this draft, with their actual pick number in parenthesis:

1.Derrick Rose (1)
2. Kevin Love (5)
3. Russell Westbrook (4)
4. Roy Hibbert (17)
5. Serge Ibaka (24)
6. Ryan Anderson (21)
7. Brook Lopez (10)
8. Eric Gordon (7)
9. JaVale McGee (18)
10. Danilo Gallinari (6)

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Review of the 2007 NBA Draft

9/20/2012

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The 2007 Draft, following a down year, brings us back to the star power and depth we are used to seeing.  It also brings us to the point in our reviews where it is becoming hard to judge the overall talent in a particular draft; the players in question from this point onward still have much to prove, and a lot can change in the next few years. Still, we can hopefully gain a pretty accurate picture from the information we already have.

So far there have been three players from 2007 who have made the All-Star team: Kevin Durant (picked #2), Al Horford (#3) and Marc Gasol (#48.) Joakim Noah (#9) seems like a serious candidate to join that group soon.

This draft, for good or bad, is best remembered for the debate as to who should be picked first. Greg Oden and Kevin Durant were both deemed worthy of the #1 pick. Oden ended up being selected first, and has had his career absolutely decimated by injuries. As we have seen with other highly regarded prospects like Jay Williams and Shaun Livingston, significant injuries can essentially end a career before it ever gets going. Unfortunately this seems to be the case with Oden, and he is another serious reminder that injuries can take down even the most  sought-after amateur players.

Durant, of course, ended up going second and being great. He is far superior to anyone else in this draft. Hortford was an excellent selection at #3, and Mike Conley was a solid pick at #4. Jeff Green has yet to live up to expectations as the #5 pick.

Noah (#9) and Thaddeus Young (#12) are the other lottery selections that have had strong careers so far. Meanwhile the second half of the first round in 2007 had many good value picks: Rodney Stuckey (#15), Jared Dudley (#22), Aaron Brooks (#26), Arron Afflalo (#27) and Tiago Splitter (#28) stand out as solid selections.

Almost nobody expected Marc Gasol to end up being anything close to an All-Star, and he has vastly exceeded expectations by being the best selection of the second round, and a truly great late pick. Carl Landry was the other superb second round pick from 2007 at #31.

Additional second rounders worth noting are Glen Davis at #35 and Ramon Sessions at #56. Both were very nice selections at their slots. Gary Neal, as an undrafted player from 2007, also is worth noticing.

So this year has good depth, and high caliber players were available throughout most of the draft. A rough approximation the top ten players from 2007, with their actual pick number in parenthesis:

1. Kevin Durant (2)
2. Al Horford (3)
3. Marc Gasol (48)
4. Joakim Noah (9)
5. Carl Landry (31)
6. Mike Conley (4)
7. Thaddeus Young (12)
8. Arron Afflalo (27)
9. Jared Dudley (22)
10. Tiago Splitter (28)

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Review of the 2006 NBA Draft

9/14/2012

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The 2006 Draft is rather peculiar. It was the first year that players were disallowed from entering the draft directly from high school, a custom that had been in practice since 1995. It also was the first year a European player was selected first overall. Neither of these points ended up working in the draft's favor.

There are only three players from 2006 who have made the All-Star team: LaMarcus Aldridge (picked #2), Brandon Roy (#6) and Rajon Rondo (#21). That is a pretty low number of All-Stars, and it seems very possible that no other player from this draft will eventually achieve that status.

The quality of the players in this draft is clearly better than the notoriously bad 2000 draft. But at the same time there are no transcendent players like there were in 1997, another draft that had only three All-Stars. So overall 2006 appears relatively weak.

There also is a high degree of randomness in the draft order of 2006. Rondo, for a proven and talented college player, was picked very late. Because of Roy's numerous injury problems, there is a good chance Rondo will go down as the best player from 2006, even though he dropped all the way to #21. Kyle Lowry (picked #24) and Paul Millsap (#47) futher confirm the arbitrariness of this draft. In retrospect, both clearly deserved to be picked in the top ten.

As it stands, the top five of 2006 is a huge disappointment besides Aldridge. Andrea Bargnani was a bad selection as the first choice, but he looks great compared to Adam Morrison (selected #3.) Tyrus Thomas (#4) has been a large letdown, and Shelden Williams (#5) simply is not good.

The lottery, in fairness, did produce other productive players we have yet to mention: Rudy Gay (#8), J.J. Redick (#11), Thabo Sefolosha (#13) and Ronnie Brewer (#14) all were solid picks. Obviously Rondo and Lowry were the steals of the latter part of round one, which otherwise proved rather mundane.

Millsap is one of the great late picks in recent NBA history, and the clear highlight of the second round. Steve Novak (#32), Craig Smith (#36), Daniel Gibson (#42) and Leon Powe (#49) are the other notable second round picks, although none have had particularly excellent careers. Similarly, Jose Juan Barea and Louis Amundson are notable undrafted players from this year.

So 2006, in conclusion, is a pretty poor draft. It lacks a superstar and has comparatively poor depth. Even so, there were several borderline stars and solid players available, once again proving that no draft is truly "bad." A rough approximation of the top ten players from 2006, with their actual pick number in parenthesis:

1. Rajon Rondo (21)
2. LaMarcus Aldridge (2)
3. Brandon Roy (6)
4. Paul Millsap (47)
5. Kyle Lowry (24)
6. Rudy Gay (8)
7. Andrea Bargnani (1)
8. Ronnie Brewer (14)
9. J.J. Redick (11)
10. Tyrus Thomas (4)

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Review of the 2005 NBA Draft

9/12/2012

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We now move on to the 2005 Draft. At this point in our draft reviews we generally know what to expect, and this draft seems pretty par for course. There is a lot of talent in it, the best of which goes off the board early, and plenty of depth.

There are five players that have made the All-Star team from this draft: Deron Williams (picked #3), Chris Paul (#4), Andrew Bynum (#10), Danny Granger (#17) and David Lee (#30.)

Paul somewhat surprisingly dropped to fourth, mainly it seems because of concerns about his size. He is clearly the best player from this year. Bynum, picked tenth, surely would have gone earlier if he ever played in college.

Andrew Bogut was a mediocre pick at #1, and maybe worse than that, given that both Paul and Williams were available and rated highly. Marvin Williams was a terrible selection at #2 for that same reason. Raymond Felton was the fifth pick, and third point guard in a row to go off the board. He has had an adequate career given his draft position.

Many late first round selections picked between Granger and Lee have had decent careers; Nate Robinson (#21), Jarrett Jack (#22) and Jason Maxiell (#26) stand out as particularly good value picks.

The second round of 2005 is very impressive. Two high scoring guards - Monta Ellis (#40) and Lou Williams (#45) - were superb selections in the forties. Marcin Gortat was an equally impressive pick at #57. And Brandon Bass (#33), Ersan Ilyasova (#36), Ronny Turiaf (#37), Andray Blatche (#49), Ryan Gomes (#50) and Amir Johnson (#56) all have had productive pro careers. Also Chuck Hayes and Kelenna Azubuike are two undrafted players worth mentioning, so later picks in 2005 ended up having a lot of worth.

This draft fulfills our expectations by having both star power and ample depth, which at this point seems the norm. A rough approximation of the top ten players from 2005, with their actual pick number in parenthesis:

1. Chris Paul (4)
2. Deron Williams (3)
3. Andrew Bynum (10)
4. Danny Granger (17)
5. David Lee (30)
6. Andrew Bogut (1)
7. Monta Ellis (40)
8. Lou Williams (45)
9. Marcin Gortat (57)
10. Ersan Ilyasova (36)

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NBA Focus

Review of the 2009 NBA Draft

Review of the 2008 NBA Draft

Review of the 2007 NBA Draft

Review of the 2006 NBA Draft

Review of the 2005 NBA Draft

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