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Review of the 2000 NBA Draft

7/30/2012

We now come to the notoriously bad 2000 Draft. On closer inspection it does not look much better.

There were three All-Stars from this draft: Kenyon Martin (picked #1), Jamaal Magloire (#19) and Michael Redd (#43.) One reason this draft appears so weak is the complete absence of real stars - the three aforementioned players only played in one All-Star game each.

Martin was somewhat of a disappointment, even though we can't fault the Nets for picking him first. Stromile Swift, Darius Miles, Marcus Fizer and Mike Miller were the other top 5 picks - only Miller has even mildly lived up to expectations.

As opposed to 1999, when so many first rounders became truly excellent pros, almost nothing phenomenal came out of the 2000 first round. There were, however, some players we have not yet mentioned who were good picks: Jamal Crawford (#8), Hedo Turkoglu (#16), Quentin Richardson (#18) and Morris Peterson (#21) are all worth pointing out.

Redd was obviously a steal in round two. Again it is telling that the best player in the draft dropped down this far, further proving that excellent players are almost always available late in round one or in round two.

But in general, besides Redd, the second round of 2000 was not that fruitful. Marco Jaric, Eddie House, Eduardo Najera and Brian Cardinal all had decent careers, but not much more than that.    Likewise  I can mention Malik Allen and Ime Udoka as undrafted players from this class, but their pro careers are nothing compared to the undrafted free agents from the few previous few years.

We can take away a lot from 2000. We see that as "bad" a draft as it was, there still were many players picked in it that made lasting and sustainable impressions in the NBA. When doing these reviews I usually try to only mention first rounders who became very good pros, but if I am more lenient I can mention plenty of other  first rounders in this draft that were at least decent:  Joel Przybilla, Keyon Dooling, Etan Thomas, Desmond Mason, Speedy Claxon and DeShawn Stevenson were all taken in the first round. So I think it is foolish to say this draft was bereft of any value, because there definitely were some worthwhile players picked.

Overall 2000 teaches us the lesson that even in the worst of drafts we can find players who can strongly fill voids in a roster effectively. And at this point it should be clear that stopgap solutions are readily available in every part of the draft. You are not always guaranteed to find superstars in a draft, but in the very least you can always find good players that can help your team. The 200o draft, one of the weakest in history, should make that clear.

Here is the approximate order of the top ten players from the 2000 draft, with their actual selection number in parenthesis:

1. Michael Redd (43)
2. Hedo Turkoglu (16)
3. Kenyon Martin (1)
4. Mike Miller (5)
5. Jamal Crawford (8)
6. Morris Peterson (21)
7. Quentin Richardson (18)
8. Jamaal Magloire (19)
9. Joel Przybilla (9)
10. Eduardo Najera (38)

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Looking at some more July moves

7/25/2012

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Continuing on with brief analysis of some of the larger deals of the last few weeks:

- Blake Griffin's 5 year, $95 million extension (all salary numbers, as always, are approximate) came at an odd time - and then he proceeded to need surgery only a few days after his huge extension was announced.

I just don't understand the urgency of signing future restricted free agents to extensions so early in the process - even if they are superstars. This is a topic worth thinking about. I guess when you don't immediately early extend great players like Kevin Durant, Derrick Rose or Griffin you risk alienating them, and hypothetically affecting their play during the following season. But they are restricted, and even superstars should understand that there is no need for a team to give any restricted player an extension a whole season before he hits restricted free agency.

I personally don't think the three aformentioned players would be too offended if their team respectfully explained to them that they would have to wait a little longer to get an extension, and that it was nothing personal, just team policy. It seems only the Spurs have consistently had success in having their stars wait in signing extensions.

Griffin, like Rose before him, is hurt before his massive extension even kicks in.  Griffin had minor knee problems in college, and then missed all of his first year in the league. Now he is having surgery again. I unfortunately have my doubts whether he will be able to stay relatively healthy over the next half decade. I definitely prefer Kevin Love's contract to his.

- The Jeremy Lin/Knicks breakup is getting a lot of hype, and like many people I think it was dumb that the Knicks did not match Houston's offer. The main reason New York seems so stupid in not matching is the obvious business incentive Lin brings a franchise. But like I stated before, from just a pure basketball standpoint, Lin is still a pretty good gamble. Even with an increased third year salary of $15 million, Lin has shown enough upside to be worth the financial stake - especially for a young, athletic team like the Rockets, whose cap hit for him will be about $8 million each of the next three years.

- The Nets seemed determined to act even more foolishly than the Knicks.  Brooklyn signed Brook Lopez to a four year, $61 million deal and Kris Humphries to a two year, $24 million contract. Lopez played only five games last year, making him a huge future injury risk, and he is probably not worth that kind of money even if he is totally healthy the next four years. Offensively Lopez is a fine player, but defensively he is relatively weak for a center. I would prefer to have an overpaid Roy Hibbert - but really I would choose neither at that price.

Humphries is pretty decent, but there is no way he is worth $12 million annually. Players almost as good as him are always available for far less a salary.

- Tim Duncan, meanwhile, like Kevin Garnett and Steve Nash before him, has agreed to a completely palatable contract - a 3 year, $30 million deal with the Spurs (San Antonio, like I just mentioned, are masters at reasonably extending their own stars.) It is amazing that these veteran icons, who are still fantastic and probably the best three leaders in the game, all become free agents and no team overpays them. Apparently aging All-Stars aren't as enticing as overrated restricted free agents like Lopez, Hibbert or Eric Gordon.

- Ryan Anderson agreed to a sign and trade with New Orleans, which will pay him $36 million over the next four years. The Hornets had to trade Gustavo Ayon to Orlando to complete the deal. I really like Anderson, and he has played like an All-Star the past couple of seasons next to Dwight Howard.  The question is how he will play without Howard. If he is almost as good as he has been, and can play 30+ minutes a game, this is a very good signing by New Orleans. I think it will help Anderson to play next to Anthony Davis - that's not a bad downgrade from Howard. But if Anderson falls back to simply being good, and not great, then Ayon is almost as valuable for far less of a salary. Personally, I think New Orleans is taking a worthwhile risk, but obviously it could backfire.

- Ersan Ilyasova is another player I have always liked who signed a big extension - at least a 4 year, guaranteed $32 million commitment from Milwaukee. Unlike Anderson, Iyasova only showed flashes of brilliance up until this year, in which he was consistently excellent.   This deal is an obvious gamble by the Bucks. $8 million a year for a good but not great player is not a terrible investment, but it's one I would rather not make.   Hopefully for Milwaukee, Ilyasove stays superb and healthy, but I have a feeling he will make that dip back down in averageness sooner than later.

- The entire amnesty provision has kind of been a mockery - in general it seems like teams end up amnestying an overpaid player just to overpay someone else. The CBA probably should have just allowed a one time amnesty per team before the beginning of the 2011-12 season. Either you cut your guy then, or you are stuck with him counting towards the cap for the remainder of his bad contract. To give teams the flexibility as to when they can amnesty someone over the next few years is just silly.

Look at team like Dallas - they rather smartly signed Chris Kaman to a one year deal worth $8 million, and O.J. Mayo to a two year, $8 million deal. Often the length of a contract is just as bad as an excessive annual salary, so these two deals were pretty good because they were only short term investments for productive players. But to make those signings happen the Mavericks amnestyed Brendan Haywood, and will still owe him $20+ million over the next three years (it's just that money won't count against the cap.) So really the Kaman and Mayo signings don't look that great when you think of all the money they just burned on Haywood.  It's a typical Dallas move. And amnesty in general seems to be this way: a profligate attitude towards salaries and payroll. God, how I wish the new CBA imposed a hard cap, then wasteful teams would actually have to think about how they spend...

- The Nuggets extended the enigmatic JaVale McGee for 4 years and $44 million. I like this deal more than Hibbert's and Lopez's, but I probably would not have signed off on it. McGee has loads of talent, and has always put up pretty good raw numbers. The consistency of his promising statistics is impressive, but his on-court chemistry has always been poor - and often much worse than poor. In short, it is very unclear whether a team becomes substantially better with McGee on the court, numbers aside. The jury is still out, and McGee has plenty of time to grow, but right now he is not a $10+ million a year player.

-George Hill got overpaid by the Pacers to the tune of 5 years, $40 million. It's always worth mentioning long, expensive contracts for adequate players, because it reeks of foolishness and poor comprehension of how replaceable most players are over the long run. Hill's contract is not as bad as Jeff Green's, but it still is lousy.

Adequate starters and bench players are never worth fretting over, unless they are very young and have shown glimpses of an extreme upside (like Lin.) Hill has little upside. He is a lot more like Randy Foye, Delonte West and C.J. Watson (who all just signed short term deals for only a few million a year) than Steve Nash (who Hill is being paid like.) The Pacers should have just kept Darren Collison.

The future is not bright enough for most players to ever merit lavishing them with a big contract. Just because they want one doesn't mean you should give it to them. Let them walk if they don't want your money.

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Review of the 1999 NBA Draft

7/19/2012

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Continuing our draft reviews, we come to the 1999 Draft. There were nine All-Stars from this draft: Elton Brand (pick #1), Steve Francis (#2), Baron Davis (#3), Wally Szczerbiak (#6), Richard Hamilton (#7), Shawn Marion (#9), Ron Artest (#16), Andrei Kirilenko (#24), and Manu Ginobili (#57.)

What strikes me with the 1999 draft is the plethora of excellent players selected, and yet the absence of any certain Hall of Famers. There are, in short, a ton of stars in this draft, but no iconic superstars. On top of the players already mentioned we also have Lamar Odom (picked #4), Andre Miller (#8), Jason Terry (#10) and Corey Maggette (#13.) So this first round was loaded with very productive NBA talent. Jonathan Bender was the only top ten pick not to have an excellent career.

Other first rounders worth mentioning are James Posey (#18), Jeff Foster (#21) and Kenny Thomas (#22.) Basically half the players selected in the first round of 1999 turned into very good NBA players, which is impressive.

As strong as the first round of 1999 was, the second round was equally as weak. This is one of the few years where the consensus best players really all did get taken in the first round. The one glaring exception obviously is Ginobili, probably the best player in this entire draft. It's safe to say that Ginobili being selected so late is a completely freak thing - if pro scouts took international guards half as seriously as they do now there is no way Ginobili would have fallen out of the lottery. It is also worth mentioning that Ginobili did not play his first NBA game until 2002, and there was no guarantee when he was drafted that he would ever even make it over here.

There are two undrafted players from 1999 who stand out: Raja Bell and Chris Anderson. Both have carved out long and useful careers in the NBA.

Here is the approximate order of the top ten players from the 1999 draft, with their actual selection number in parenthesis:

1. Manu Ginobili (57)
2. Elton Brand (1)
3. Shawn Marion (9)
4. Andre Miller (8)
5. Jason Terry (10)
6. Richard Hamilton (7)
7. Baron Davis (3)
8. Andrei Kirilenko (24)
9. Lamar Odom (4)
10. Steve Francis (2)

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Review of the 1998 NBA Draft

7/13/2012

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We continue our draft review with a look at the 1998 draft. There are 6 players in this class who made the All-Star team - Antawn Jamison (picked fourth), Vince Carter (fifth), Dirk Nowitzki (ninth), Paul Pierce (tenth), Rashard Lewis (32nd) and Brad Miller (undrafted.)

Michael Olowokandi was a total bust with the first pick. Mike Bibby was the second pick, and has had an excellent career (surprisingly he was never an All-Star.) Raef LaFrentz was a relative disappointment with the third pick, especially given the players that were drafted right after him.

There are plenty of other notable first rounders from 1998: Jason Williams (pick #7), Larry Hughes (#8), Bonzi Wells (#11), Matt Harpring (#15), Rasho Nesterovic (#17), Ricky Davis (#21), Al Harrington (#25), and Nazr Mohammed (#29) are all worth mentioning.

We can see that overall this first round was much better than the previous year, with a few huge stars, and a lot of other productive players. The mid-lottery (from #4 to #11) produced the best players.

Obviously Lewis is the second round steal of this draft, but there were other good players taken: Ruben Patterson (#31), Rafer Alston (#39) and Cuttino Mobley (#41) stand out.

What is exceptional about 1998 are all the superb players who went undrafted. Miller is one of the best undrafted players ever. Earl Boykins has had a fantastic career considering he wasn't selected in either round. Mike James, like Boykins, bounced around a lot - but he has had a fine NBA career and made himself a lot of money. And Anthony Carter is another point guard from the undrafted class of '98 that has had a long, long career. This seems like further proof we have to view late picks and undrafted prospects more seriously.

1998 also begins to further indicate the uncertainty of the draft order. We should be clearly understanding that some the best players in a draft are not necessarily taken in the first part of the lottery.

Here is the approximate order of the top ten players from the 1998 draft, with their actual selection number in parenthesis:

1. Dirk Nowitzki (9)
2. Paul Pierce (10)
3. Vince Carter (5)
4. Rashard Lewis (32)
5. Brad Miller (undrafted)
6. Antawn Jamison (4)
7. Mike Bibby (2)
8. Cuttino Mobley (41)
9. Al Harrington (25)
10. Raef LaFrentz (3)

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Review of the 1997 NBA Draft

7/11/2012

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I hope to be reviewing 15 years of the NBA Draft throughout the summer. The plan is to review all the drafts from 1997 through 2011. The reason I am doing a somewhat thorough review of recent drafts is because I think we need a better understanding of how the NBA Draft works in the bigger picture of running a franchise.

The draft, in my opinion, is easily the most important part of building an excellent team. It is worthwhile to step back and interpret it from a historical distance. If we can do this, we can hopefully comprehend its importance more clearly, and understand how draft picks can be utilized more effectively.

The main point I am trying to prove is that there is always more depth in a draft than we are initially led to believe. Every single selection in a draft is important. Good players, who can be paid very little by NBA standards, are always available in the second round, and often even go undrafted.

So lets start with the 1997 draft. This is "The Duncan Draft," and is regarded rather infamously in historical context. Lets look at it a little more closely.

We have to start by saying Tim Duncan was the clear number one selection, and he has obviously more than lived up to all the hype that surrounded his arrival in the NBA. Duncan, Chauncey Billups and Tracy McGrady are the only three players in this draft to make All-Star teams, which we will see is a comparatively low number of all-stars for a draft. Obviously all three were great players, and excellent selections.

Billups was picked third and McGrady ninth, and both took a few years to show any signs of greatness. Keith Van Horn, Antonio Daniels and Tony Battie were the other top 5 selections in 1997, and none of them lived up to expectations, although all three had decent careers.

The rest of the first round of 1997 is decidely uneventful. There were plenty of good players taken (like Tim Thomas, Derek Anderson, Brevin Knight and Bobby Jackson), but no real first round steals after McGrady went off the board.

The second round is more interesting, because this is the part of the draft that we often dismiss, and there were valuable picks made there in 1997. Stephen Jackson was picked 42nd; he has had an excellent career and was a steal with such a late pick (although not for Phoenix, the team that originally picked him.) Other notable second round picks were Marc Jackson at #37, Anthony Johnson at #39, Alvin Williams at #47, and Mark Blount at #54. All these second rounders had relatively good NBA careers and made a lot of money.

Also Troy Hudson, Damon Jones and Mikki Moore went undrafted in 1997 - all three went on to have decent NBA careers, especially given they were not even picked in either round. So 1997 begins to give us an indication of the potential value of second rounders and undrafted players.

A rough approximation of the top ten players in this draft, with their actual pick number in parenthesis:

1. Tim Duncan (1)
2. Tracy McGrady (9)
3. Chauncey Billups (3)
4. Stephen Jackson (42)
5. Keith Van Horn (2)
6. Tim Thomas (7)
7. Brevin Knight (16)
8. Bobby Jackson (23)
9. Derek Anderson (13)
10. Antonio Daniels (4)

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Typical free agency madness and destruction

7/7/2012

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If you have perused NBA Focus  you understand how strongly I hate the majority of big NBA contracts. If you make more than $6 or $7 million bucks a year you better be a hell of a player. If you make eight figures a year you better be superb. And if you make $15 million  plus a year? You better always be making the All-Star team.

So with that said, I dislike talking about free agency. It always irritates me to see teams just throwing away their money and destroying their long-term chances of becoming excellent teams. My general advice in regards to signing "marquee" free agents who want expensive, long-term contracts? Just say no. Focus on the draft and making intelligent trades instead.

Free agency in the NBA is usually fool's gold.  Teams get into bidding wars, and end up paying far too much money for players who can't possibly live up to their astronomical salaries. Please understand - free agency is a risky, risky way of conducting business. You are so likely to overpay for players. Let's run through some notable contract agreements and trades that have happened since July 1st:

- We should start by going over the general situation in Brooklyn, because it stands out to me in is recklessness. The Nets are overjoyed to have a 5 year, $100 million (all salary numbers here are approximate) commitment from Deron Williams. Williams is a hell of a player, but he wasn't worth $20 million annually the last few years. When you make that much money, you want to be consistently great, and as good as Williams has been, he has not been consistently great. However his huge deal looks abundantly sane compared to what else the Nets have in the works.

Billy King has ineply decided to trade for Joe Johnson's crazy 4 year, $90 million dollar contract, in an attempt to help seal the deal with (an overpaid) Williams. This trade will cripple the Nets' franchise in all likelihood, unless they can somehow still find a way to get Dwight Howard. Johnson is currently paid about twice what he is worth, and the proportions of his worth versus cost are just going to get worse. This is an unforgiveable and incredibly stupid trade by King.

King also managed to sign Gerald Wallace to a 4 year, $40 million extension, another foolish deal given Wallace's injury history. It is debatable whether Wallace commands eight figures even if he is healthy - he probably shouldn't. In short, the Nets seemingly have guaranteed themselves an adequate and displeasing next half decade with all their horrible spending over the last ten days. I hope they enjoy going 45-37 next year. It is possible they can somehow still get Howard (how, realistically??), but I am competely disgusted with how the Nets have managed their roster over the last few weeks.

- Roy Hibbert agreed to a 4 year, $58 max offer sheet with Portland, which Indiana might match. Hibbert is good, but this is too much money, even in a center-depleted league. Hibbert had his best season this year, and still was only a borderline All-Star in the East. With an almost $15 million annual salary you want more from a player, and it seems unlikely Hibbert can supply more. If he can stay healthy, and play at the level he played in 2012, this is not a terrible contract - but regardless the Pacers would be wise to let Portland have him.

- Eric Gordon agreed to essentially the same terms as Hibbert, only with Phoenix; New Orleans might match it. This is a lousy move by the Suns. Like Hibbert, Gordon is at best a borderline all-star. But Gordon does not play center, and he looks highly injury prone. His signing will probably not take the Suns or Hornets where they think it will. On top of that, the Suns also probably overpaid Goran Dragic with his long-term deal. With all the phenomenal point guards in the league, Dragic in reality is just an average starting PG.

- Nicolas Batum will sign a maddening 4 year, $45 offer sheet with Minnesota, that Portland stupidly will probably match. Batum is the kind of player you like having for $4 or $5 million, but is vastly, vastly overpaid at this price. There are plenty of players nearly as valuable as Batum available for a few million dollars a year.

- Jeff Green's rumored 4 year, $40 million deal with the Celtics is perhaps the most mind-numbingly stupid long-term deal yet, and makes Batum's deal appear highly responsible. Green missed all of last year. And on top of that he has never been good! His highest PER in a season was 13.9 - he could considerably improve and still never make an All-Star game. This is an incredibly poor move by the Celtics if it ends up happening.

- Meanwhile, Boston managed to sign its heart and soul, Kevin Garnett, for reportedly less money than Green.   Both Garnett and Steve Nash's new deals look quite reasonable, especially when put in this year's free agency framework.

Nash and Garnett are amazing chemistry guys, and seem to have at least a year or two of near all-star level play left. Their contracts (expensive, but not wildly so) are obviously risky, but worthwhile for contending teams like the Celtics and Lakers. These two deals are the kind of aggressive free agent signings worth making, and should pay immediate dividends for both teams. The one issue for Los Angeles is that they gave away a lot draft picks to snag Nash, but I find that understandable given the circumstances.

- Houston gave a 3 year, $25 million offer sheet to Omer Asik, and a 4 year, $29 million offer to Jeremy Lin. Each offer has a "poison pill" third year, but both Chicago and New York can still match.

The Asik deal is typical Daryl Morey - he recognizes that Asik is a fantastic defender and underrated, so he decides he is a good pick up. The problem is that unless Asik doubles his minutes and production this deal is excessive. I doubt Asik gets that much better than what he is; in my opinion this is once again Morey thinking too much about something that, in the overall picture, is not that important.

I am a supporter of the Lin deal. Unfortunately for Houston, the Knicks are bound to match it. Besides the obvious marketing potential (which I am not factoring in here), Lin has shown enough signs and upside to be worth a three year gamble (the fourth year of his deal is reportedly a team option.) At best he becomes an All-Star, and as long as he stays healthy he probably will be at least as good as a player like Dragic.

- Finally, Houston also decided to trade Kyle Lowry to Toronto for a future lottery pick and Gary Forbes. Lowry supposedly had issues with Kevin McHale, and Houston decided it was worthwhile to go in a different direction. Their compensation seems fair, and Toronto is happy because they just picked up a very good point guard who is only owed $12 million over the next two years. This reported deal was one of the few this past week that seemed completely rational.

You see, in early July it is possible to make sound moves, you just gotta focus on the big picture and not get overwhelmed with all the funny money being tossed around.

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NBA Focus

Review of the 2000 NBA Draft

Looking at some more July moves

Review of the 1999 NBA Draft

Review of the 1998 NBA Draft

Review of the 1997 NBA Draft

Typical free agency madness and destruction

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