It doesn't come as much a surprise because he's a small point guard, but Trey Burke is probably rated too low in most mock drafts. While his relatively low number of combined rebounds, steals and blocks (RSB) are a mild concern, I see very little reason to think Burke will not become a fine point guard in the NBA. James Brocato's excellent draft analysis helped solidify my thoughts in this regard. Burke might end up deserving to be picked in the top 5, and could potentially be a steal if he drops much lower than that. I wrote as much for BR today.
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It doesn't come as much a surprise because he's a small point guard, but Trey Burke is probably rated too low in most mock drafts. While his relatively low number of combined rebounds, steals and blocks (RSB) are a mild concern, I see very little reason to think Burke will not become a fine point guard in the NBA. James Brocato's excellent draft analysis helped solidify my thoughts in this regard. Burke might end up deserving to be picked in the top 5, and could potentially be a steal if he drops much lower than that. I wrote as much for BR today.
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Before the season I mentioned that, as usual, the Western Conference is much better than the Eastern Conference. Something else rather obvious is worth mentioning: Most of this year's best players are in the West. LeBron James is the best player on the planet, but you can make an argument that the next best five or six players in the league are all in the other Conference, especially if we are using regular season output as a barometer. With Dwyane Wade slightly slowed by injuries, and Derrick Rose out, the MVP voting order would probably look something like this if the season ended today: James, Kevin Durant, Chris Paul, Tony Parker, Kobe Bryant, James Harden. We can debate which stars have had a better year, but looking at the All-Star rosters gives a more sobering big picture: The Western Conference is just so much more loaded up top. Listen, I love Wade as much as anyone, and Carmelo Anthony is having a very good year. Both those guys could be potentially better than any other player during the playoffs. But in terms of superstars carrying the load during the regular season, it's mainly the stars out West. James and Tyson Chandler are the only Eastern Conference players to rank in the top ten in Win Shares. And Brook Lopez has the second highest PER in the Eastern Conference. That's pretty much all you need to know. So let's give props to the aforementioned Western Conference stars, as well as guys like Russell Westbrook, Tim Duncan, Blake Griffin and Marc Gasol. They are all playing at a higher level this year than just about anybody in the Eastern Conference - with one big exception. It was almost as if folks expected a huge trade before the deadline yesterday, although the trade deadline is often rather mundane. There already have been some big in-season trades this year, and nothing yesterday seems to have that significant of an impact on the big picture of any franchise going forward. Probably the most surprising move was Thomas Robinson, the 5th pick in last year's draft, being dealt. Ailene Voisin skillfully summed up my sentiments on the subject - the problem is not that the Kings traded Robinson, but that they mistakenly drafted him so early last year. Several other teams probably would have also drafted Robinson in the top 5 like the Kings did, but trading him now and for relatively little in return is peculiar. That said, the reality is Robinson does not seem likely to turn into a very good pro, and the Kings did at least get something in return for him. I wrote something brief for BR today about the upcoming "weak" NBA Draft. Nothing too surprising if you are familiar with this site; what it comes down to is that most scouts and GM's fail to fully understand the inherent volatility and uncertainty associated with drafting young players. I'm still waiting to make up my mind about the Class of 2009, let alone the Class of 2013. Like many people I consider All-Star selections kind of silly, as every year a few players are snubbed, and rather undeserving players are chosen in their place. That said, looking at All-Star selections from a historical distance is actually quite enlightening, and can teach us a good deal. My recent draft review illustrated this. The 2013 All-Star selections brought a few things to mind in this regard: - There were seven first-time selections: Tyson Chandler, Paul George, James Harden, Jrue Holiday, Kyrie Irving, Brook Lopez, and Joakim Noah. - Holiday was the only first-time selection not to be picked in the top 10 of his draft; he was picked 17th in the 2009 Draft. - George and Irving became the first players from their draft classes to be selected for the game (2010 and 2011, respectively.) - Noah was the ninth selection in the draft; Lopez and George were the tenth selections in their drafts. That now makes 12 different All-Stars selected 9th or 10th in the draft since 1997. In that same span, not one single player picked 11th through 15th has been selected to the All-Star game. If that doesn't tell you the importance of having a top ten pick, I don't know what will. Nerlens Noel's injury obviously is a shame. It also casts a shadow over the 2013 NBA Draft. I wrote something brief for BR about it. Click here to read it. Rajon Rondo has long been one of my favorite players - and unfortunately he has also been one of the more overrated players in the league the last few years. I could write 3,000 words on this topic, but would rather not. The better thing is simply to ask the question: Should the Celtics trade Rondo? I wrote a short piece for BR today about the idea. Click here to read it. A few weeks back I said it's unlikely any upperclassman from the 2013 NBA Draft turns into an All-Star. I'm hedging on that a bit. While I have liked Victor Oladipo as a prospect for a while, his continual improvement is mildly shocking. He has shot the lights out the entire year, and keeps evolving and getting better as an all-around player each passing month. Plus he's the best on-the-ball college defender in the country. He looks damn good, and if he continues to improve he will definitely be picked very early. Before we get too excited, let's remember another Big Ten junior swingman who dominated college basketball a few years ago: Evan Turner. Oladipo and Turner are very different types of players, but it's worth thinking about the similarities. Oladipo could disappoint us in the NBA because of his lack of offense. But he also could become an excellent NBA scorer if he continues to evolve offensively. I wrote a little something about Oladipo for BR just now. You can read it by clicking here. I just put up a post on BR about the top freshmen prospects in the country, and some of the main concerns we have about their potential at the next level. To read it click here. What really cannot be emphasized enough is the amount of uncertainty surrounding top freshmen prospects. All of these players are young. Some more than others. It's different being 18 years old on draft day as opposed to 20 years old. A lot will happen over the next four and a half months. But at least a few of these freshman will likely become excellent NBA players. |
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