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Point guards picked very early are usually All-Stars

3/15/2013

3 Comments

 

Point guard is arguably the toughest position to gauge future pro potential. Running a NBA team takes a lot of skills that are often hard (or impossible) to assess in college prospects. Because of the unique and hard to define demands of the position, many future All-Star NBA point guards have dropped in the draft over the years.

That said, when a point guard is selected very early in a draft, he usually turns into an excellent pro.  It is an auspicious sign if a point guard prospect is regarded highly enough to be picked in the top 5, and especially promising if he is selected in the top 3. Let's look at all the point guards chosen in the top 5 since 1990; the players in bold were an All-Star at least once:

Drafted #1:
Allen Iverson, Derrick Rose, John Wall, Kyrie Irving

Drafted #2:
Gary Payton, Kenny Anderson, Jason Kidd, Mike Bibby, Steve Francis, Jay Williams

Drafted #3:
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf, Anfernee Hardaway, Chauncey Billups, Baron Davis, Deron Williams

Drafted #4:
Stephon Marbury, Antonio Daniels, Shaun Livingston, Chris Paul, Mike Conley, Russell Westbrook

Drafted #5:
Devin Harris, Ray Felton, Ricky Rubio

That's a very impressive list, with a high success rate and few busts. Of the 24 point guards drafted in the top 5 since 1990, 15 have been All-Stars.  And 11 of the 15 taken in the top 3 have been All-Stars. 

Basically any point guard prospect drafted in the top 3 we should expect to turn into an excellent pro, barring injury. Most drafted since 1990 have become All-Stars, and even those who didn't have been good. Bibby was a borderline All-Star talent, and Wall is moving in that direction. Jay Williams had a decent rookie year, but then was injured and never played again. Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf wasn't a star, but was a good NBA player nonetheless. 


So the top 3 is a special place for point guard prospects. Picks four and five have obviously been very fruitful as well. Overall there are probably fewer busts among point guards selected in the top 5 than any other position.  Point guards aren't picked in the top 5 every year, but when they are they usually turn out being worthy selections.

In terms of the 2013 Draft, this information is probably only relevant in regards to Marcus Smart (unless Trey Burke or Michael Carter-Williams really catch fire over the next few weeks.) If Smart is drafted early and can stay healthy, history says that he is almost guaranteed to become a very good NBA player.

3 Comments
Tim link
3/15/2013 07:52:45 am

A few caveats on the list: Hardaway and Iverson could be considered shooting guards for much of their careers, but they were drafted as point guards. Also, I did not include Dion Waiters on the list, although he was considered a point guard in some circles before last year's draft.

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Ed
3/16/2013 12:12:28 am

I don't know that Smart is a lock for the top 5. It could come down to how the lottery plays out. Cleveland, Washington, Philadelphia and Minnesota are all set with young PGs and are unlikely to draft Smart. Detroit, Charlotte, Sacramento, Toronto, Phoenix and New Orleans have either drafted a PG in the lottery recently or have invested in a young PG. Orlando seems like the only early lottery team that might be looking PG in this draft.
Also important will be how well Smart shoots the ball at the combine and whether or not Burke and MCW wow scouts in a similar fashion. The number of young bigs who declare could also push Smart down the list My feeling is that the young bigs will rise to the top once everything gets sorted out.

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Tim link
3/18/2013 01:09:09 am

It's certainly not a given that Smart gets picked that high. Good point about a lot of those bad lottery teams already being "invested" in young point guards. And we know how volatile the top of a draft like this could be. Still, I think Smart gets picked that early from what I have been reading lately. We shall see....

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