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The Cavs are better than you think

8/27/2014

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I'm on the Cleveland bandwagon. They are the favorites to win it all  for a reason. The superstar trio of LeBron James, Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving is an offensive trifecta, and the team's defensive shortcomings are probably not as bad as we are led to believe - especially since we know defensive reinforcements can be brought in as an NBA season wears on.

Chances are the Cavaliers will end up with the best record in the league. They have the best player, two other All-Stars, and play in a relatively weak conference. Nonetheless, many analysts are only lukewarm about Cleveland's chances of winning it all. This strikes me as over-reactive thinking, and losing sight of the big picture.  

It's almost a distant memory, but it used to be exceedingly difficult for a team to snag a superstar from another team during the summer months - let alone two. The Celtics shocked us in the 2007 off-season by somehow trading for both Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett. That was followed by Miami's coup in 2010, when they managed to sign both Chris Bosh and James in free agency. Then, in the summer of 2012, the Lakers traded for both Steve Nash and Dwight Howard. The overnight "super team" concept no longer stunned us; actually we have become strangely accustomed to it.

But we shouldn't be. "Super teams" are the hardest teams to build, and whenever they come together we should be impressed. What Cleveland has done this summer, and what the aforementioned teams did the previous years, is astounding in historical context. While "super teams" do not always work on the court as well as they do on paper, they still usually succeed to an incredible extent. That's because when a team has three legitimate stars, everything else starts taking care of itself. And that is exactly what the Cavs currently have working for them.

So why do some pundits expect Cleveland to have difficulties this year? The answer probably is because the last two constructed "super teams" failed, in one way or the other, to live up to our lofty mental expectations. So the "super team" bar, strangely enough, is currently set too low.

Our perception tends to be clouded by the disaster that was the 2012-13 Los Angeles Lakers. But the fact of the matter is there were legitimate injury and chemistry concerns for that squad before the season even began, and things only worsened as the year went on. The 2012-13 Lakers were in poor health the whole season, and their chemistry was terrible. There is no reason to expect these Cavs to face similarly profound problems.

The 2010-11 Miami Heat also had some trouble coming out of the gate - we all remember how poorly they started, and then how they (LeBron, specifically) flamed out in the Finals. However, Miami overall was very good that year, although their chemistry was lacking. The Heat's "Big 3" never fully meshed in 2011 - and maybe never completely meshed any season they were together - but they still made four straight Finals. The reason for that is simply star power, which trumps all.

I don't expect this newly constructed Cavs team to be very good - I expect them to be great. All the key pieces are there, and I feel like David Blatt is the best head coach James has ever had. Love and Irving are both young, and will likely improve in subtle ways. This should be a wonderful team to watch, and they might come closer to attaining our ideal aspirations of what a contemporary "Big 3" should look like more successfully than the Heat ever did.

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Looking at the big picture of all the off-season moves

7/31/2014

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Obviously, it's been a wild month for NBA roster shakeups. July always is. Unlike the past few years, I have been more active on Twitter, and have summarized my general feelings for many of the larger free agency deals via that wonderfully strange 140 character medium. 

I don't care to needlessly repeat myself, and most of my thoughts on these deals can be summed up in a few lines. So, instead of my normal transaction by transaction breakdown of new large NBA contracts, I thought I would give big picture summaries for every team heading into the 2014-15 NBA season. 

For those of you unfamiliar with my work, let me say that it can be fun to break down the minutiae of a team's roster moves - but we don't do that here, because it usually misses the larger point. We focus on what is most important for a team's roster building. We don't get lost in the sea of b.s. involving 80%+ of roster moves in the league, because these moves end up being largely insignificant in terms of the big picture. 

Most NBA players, essentially, are replaceable.  Stars are not. This is the sober, unglamorous truth in terms of roster building. Far too many executives and pundits get lost in the sea of b.s. and lose a clear view of the big picture. They will deny it, but it's true nonetheless. The result is bad contracts and bad trades.

What has been interesting with transactions so far this Summer is that only one team has acquired a player from another team who is clearly going to make a huge impact. We all know who that player is. The free agency and trade market, thus far, has been somewhat subdued. Without further ado, here's the most important stuff going on with all 30 teams over the last 30 days or so:

Atlanta: The Hawks have done basically nothing substantial this off-season, and they probably won't moving forward, despite having some cap space. In the Eastern Conference, with a healthy Al Horford and Paul Millsap, to go along with sound coaching, they are an underrated squad. They fall in line with the majority of teams in the East - seeming equally capable of winning 30 or 50 games, depending largely on chemistry, injuries and luck.

Boston: The Celtics needlessly signed Avery Bradley to a 4 year, $32 million deal, even though Bradley is injury prone, and never has had a PER above 13. Some people are saying contracts like Bradley's will look better once the new CBA goes into effect a few years from now. Those folks are probably delusional. Boston continues acquiring young assets and being a well coached, mediocre team in the East.

Brooklyn: The Nets, as per usual, had an embarrassing early Summer. Lionel Hollins is now at the helm, and the success of his team will hinge on the health status of Brook Lopez and Deron Williams. If fully healthy, the Nets are easily one of the Conference's better teams, but there is no reason to expect that.

Charlotte: The Hornets' signing of Lance Stephenson was met with loud applause, but unless Stephenson improves his offensive efficiency, his acquisition is probably much ado about nothing. Charlotte is likely to have similar successes and failures as last year.

Chicago: Finally, a team that did something significant to move the barometer...maybe. The Bulls tried to makes serious moves, and ended up getting Pau Gasol from the Lakers and Nikola Mirotic from Europe. If it turns out Gasol is almost the same player he was a few years ago - and that his recent struggles were a direct byproduct of Mike D'Antoni's system - then Chicago made a hell of an acquisition (I feel Mirotic is slightly overrated and unlikely to make an immediate impact.)  Still, the ultimate success of the Bulls comes down to Derrick Rose. After almost no NBA action in over two years, it seems unlikely Rose will be able to capture all of his former glory. I can't recall a player missing basically two straight seasons because of injury and then proceeding to come back to dominate. If Rose and Gasol can somehow be nearly as good as they were in 2011 - teamed with Joakim Noah and crew - this is one exciting team. The Bulls could finally have an offense solid enough to make them the best team in the East. But, just as likely, they could not.

Cleveland: The Cavs have had the best off-season of any team, based solely on their acquiring of LeBron James, and they now have a great chance of winning it all in 2015. As we often say in terms of roster management: it's much better to be lucky than to be good. Cleveland has done most things wrong since James left in 2010, but if doesn't matter, because he wanted to come home. Kyrie Irving's $90 million extension is huge money, but Irving ultimately has shown enough talent to warrant it. At 22, he should be a great offensive on-court partner for James, and his defense seems likely to dramatically improve. If the Cavs can get Kevin Love, this team could be sublime. Without him, they are still the favorites in the East.

Dallas: Many superstars have voluntary taken big pay cuts as of late, and probably none more so than Dirk Nowitzki. Of course, the great bargain on Nowitzki is less impressive when you then go out and overpay Chandler Parsons - a solid starting small forward, and nothing more - to the tune of $15 million a year. The Tyson Chandler trade, meanwhile, was subtle and nice; Dallas seems to be hoping to have a puncher's chance once the 2015 playoffs roll around. But in the loaded Western Conference, they are lucky if they even have that.

Denver: The Nuggets have basically been in a holding pattern, and while in the East you could get away doing this with no repercussions, in the West you can end up with a 28-54 record pretty easily. Not sure exactly what Denver is focusing on right now; they do have a few nice young assets, and the talent to sneak into the playoffs next year if everything goes right, but the Nuggets are probably in for a long season.

Detroit: The Pistons, with Stan Van Gundy now calling the shots, are in a better place than most people realize. Greg Monroe is still likely to remain with the team, and Van Gundy has done a decent job bolstering the depth of the roster. With his coaching, and a burgeoning superstar in Andre Drummond, the Pistons could become one of the finer teams in the East.

Golden State: The Warriors should be willing to trade David Lee and Klay Thompson for Kevin Love in a heartbeat, but apparently are unwilling to do so. So, minor changes aside, Golden State has not improved by any serious standard this Summer. Their chance of reaching the Finals rest on Steph Curry exploding in May and June. Curry is great, but not that great. Love would help a lot.

Houston: The Rockets' off-season has not been as bad as we are led to believe. They succeeded in not overpaying Chris Bosh and Chandler Parsons (although Houston should not have initially declined Parsons' option.) They also succeeded in not overpaying Omer Asik and Jeremy Lin (due a combined whopping $30 million in salaries this year.) Sure, they are unlikely to make the Finals in such a brutal Conference, but the Rockets now have other opportunities - opportunities that overpaying the aforementioned players would not have allowed them to explore in the future. Daryl Morey might not be as smart as we think, but he's still smart.

Indiana: It was probably just as well for the Pacers that Lance Stephenson walked away from their long-term contract offer. Indiana will now move onward with their core of Paul George, David West and Roy Hibbert - all of whom are better than Stephenson anyway. But the Pacers' offense needs to improve; a significant transaction probably needs to occur in order to make that a reality.

The Clippers: The Clips still clearly are making more waves away from the court than on their roster. They have decided to stand pat so far this off-season, which is pretty sound logic given the talent they already possess. If the Donald Sterling fiasco can be put to bed, this team is a real title contender. Chris Paul, for all his greatness, has never reached a Conference Finals. The clock is ticking for him, and he knows it.

The Lakers: After striking out on Carmelo Anthony, the Lakers made many strange - and inconsequential - moves. Even if Kobe Bryant comes back in full form, it will be difficult for this team to compete nightly in the loaded West. The Lakers, though, really made some enjoyably bizarre transactions this July: they will be paying Jordan Hill about nine times the salary of Ed Davis, even though there is no clear indication that Hill is a better player; L.A. also ended up waiving Kendall Marshall (making less than a million dollars, and decent for them last year) while gladly taking on Jeremy Lin's $15 million salary.

Memphis: The Grizzlies got Zach Randolph to extend his contract at a reasonable rate, and quietly made some nice draft and minor free agent moves. The wild managerial turmoil of May seems to have passed. A healthy Memphis squad continues to be a team no one out West will want to face in the playoffs. If all things come together, and they rarely do, the Grizzlies could be playing in June next year.

Miami: What a crazy off-season for the Heat. Losing LeBron James is nothing you can really bounce back from, but Pat Riley is trying his damnedest to make it happen. It will be pretty fascinating to see how the Heat season unfolds. Chris Bosh signed a monstrous five year, $118 million deal, and that is far too much to be paying Bosh unless he reverts back to his Raptors' heyday. This is a tantalizing possibility, although a long shot. Bosh has probably been accustomed to his supporting role for too long to realistically see him average 23 and 10 again. No matter what Bosh claims, he was a much better player in those Toronto days. Meanwhile, Dwyane Wade ended up sacrificing some salary for the greater cause. We all think Wade is on the downswing, but like with Bosh, there is a remote possibility that he has more left in the tank than we are crediting him for. The same could also be said for Luol Deng. In all likelihood, the Heat are going to be a mediocre offensive team, and will be disheartening to watch. But what makes them fascinating is that if they reconfigure themselves successfully around Bosh and Wade, it is not outlandish to think Miami could make the Finals for a fifth straight year. 

Milwaukee: Jason Kidd has alluringly unique frontcourt possibilities with Larry Sanders, John Henson, Ersan Ilyasova, Jabari Parker and the apparently still-growing Giannis Anteokounmpo. That does not mean the Bucks should be any good, but they surely should be entertaining to watch. In the East, this squad might have the talent to make the playoffs, but that seems less important than finding out exactly what this roster is capable of doing on the court together. It should be fun, and sometimes excruciating, to see.

Minnesota: The Timberwolves seem likely to trade Kevin Love sooner as opposed to later - although there's still the small outside chance they keep him, make some noise in the playoffs, and resign him. But he's likely gone, and Minnesota will probably not get enough value in return. It is worth mentioning that the Timberwolves could actually be decent this year, even without Love. In the East, a Love-less team would have a fair shot of reaching the playoffs. Nikola Pekovic is a load in the best sense, Ricky Rubio will be playing for a big contract, the supporting pieces are not shabby, and Flip Saunders is an above average regular season coach. But, in realty, Saunders' managerial decisions will be much more important than any coaching he does this season.

New Orleans: The Pelicans continue to be all over the place with their roster decisions, but they have a saving grace: Anthony Davis. Like with Cleveland, it's better to be lucky than good. New Orleans made the peculiar decision to give away a future first round pick to Houston in order pay Omer Asik $15 million this year, even though they promptly had discarded cheaper rim-protecting options in Nerlens Noel and Robin Lopez last year. "Win now" apparently means "manage your long-term assets badly" if you are Dell Demps. Again, Davis helps erase many of these wrongs, but the future would probably look brighter if the Pelicans had kept Noel.

New York: The Knicks gave Carmelo Anthony a huge 5 year, $124 million contract, a deal that has been discussed ad nauseam. Anthony is likely to be worth his large annual salary over the first year or two, and then be overpaid at the latter part of the contract. Or so the popular theory goes. New York very well might have been better off letting Anthony sign elsewhere, but at the same time it is reasonable to see why they resigned him. Anthony is a hell of a player. The Knicks, in the East, could surprise us this season if chemistry and health align. But that goes for almost every Eastern Conference team.

Oklahoma City: Like the Clippers, the Thunder assessed where they were at, and decided they were satisfied. This makes complete sense. Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka continue to mature as players, and that's a comforting thought, health permitting. The Thunder probably have as good a chance as any West team to be the 2015 champs.

Orlando: The Magic are in Year 3 of the post-Dwight Howard rebuild, and this is the season where the results should begin to show up in their record. I'm not sure they will, though. In spite of acquiring many interesting young assets the last few years, the Magic seem kind of rudderless. The 4 year, $32 million Channing Frye contract was incomprehensible. Their activity around the draft - giving Arron Afflalo away for seemingly little, and giving too much up to get Elfrid Payton - was strange. If Payton and Victor Oladipo quickly develop into one one of the best young backcourt tandems in the NBA all is forgiven, but Orlando really has to start showing something this year. Another sub-30 win season is unacceptable.

Philadelphia: Sam Hinkie and the 76ers are one team that you don't need to question in terms of having a long-term plan. They have gotten, in my opinion, the best prospect in each of the last two drafts, and neither time with the first overall pick. But as impressive as Hinkie's moves have been, his blatant disregard for this upcoming season is slightly discomforting. Last year, the Sixers at least started the year with several veterans on their team. This year it looks like Thaddeus Young and Jason Richardson will be the only legitimate veterans on the roster, and they might be gone by opening night. This kind of overwrought tanking is why the NBA should modify the lottery.

Phoenix: The Suns got one of the best deals of the off-season in Isaiah Thomas for 4 years, $27 million. Thomas is a very good player, and I'm rather stunned that no team was willing to offer him a contract in the range of $9 or $10 million annually. Phoenix is still likely to bring back Eric Bledsoe, but obviously has other excellent guard options if they do not. Bledsoe is a victim of restricted free agency - other teams just assumed the Suns would match their offer on Bledsoe no matter what, so no team even offered him a max deal. Because no one offered Bledsoe max money, it now seems quite likely the Suns won't give it to him. Hurt feelings aside, this is how more teams should try to handle their restricted free agents - clinically, not emotionally. It's a business, after all.

Portland: The Trail Blazers are another Western Conference team that essentially decided to stand pat; the problem is they don't have the inherent talent of teams like the Clippers or Thunder. The Blazers had a very nice run last season, but as we all know, the West is brutal. LaMarcus Aldridge is in his prime, Damian Lillard is improving, the starters have great chemistry, the bench has improved....and so what? I just can't see this team winning three or four rounds of playoff basketball. The superior talent is just not there, sorry.

Sacramento: The Kings are still finding their way under new ownership, but things have gone poorly so far. They foolishly let Isaiah Thomas walk based on poor logic, and seem overjoyed to be paying Rudy Gay a brutally excessive salary this season. Their star, DeMarcus Cousins, is temperamental, and seems likely to be upset with another squalid year. For all the talk of a "new" way to manage the team, the Kings are really just executing the old bad decision-making habits that have plagued the franchise for years. There's nothing new about it.

San Antonio: The Spurs are going to make another go of it with the same guys, and why not? Why mess with chemistry this good? Gregg Popovich is surely aware of the difficulties of repeating with such an old squad, but no coach seems better prepared to deal with these problems. They remain the most satisfying viewing experience in all of basketball.

Toronto: The Raptors got Kyle Lowry at a very reasonable 4 year, $48 million rate. Damn good point guards continue to be undervalued contractually, which is interesting. Toronto is kind of in the same boat as Portland, only in the East. They have some nice talent, but it is hard to see the talent ever taking them all the way to the promised land. I'm not sure if Masai Ujiri is fully aware of this; he constructed a similarly fated team in Denver.

Utah: The Jazz forked over a 4 year, $63 million contract to Gordon Hayward, and all you need to know is Hayward is no better than Chandler Parsons. While point guards like Isaiah Thomas, Kyle Lowry and Eric Bledsoe struggle to get near the max, small forwards like Hayward and Parsons seemingly get it with ease. Despite what some people say, there is no reason for this. Hayward is good, and his contract may look better with the new CBA in a few years, but he simply does not deserve so big a salary. I'm genuinely interested to see how Quin Snyder will do as an NBA head coach, particularly with a roster like this.

Washington: The Wizards were more active than expected, and fortified their depth nicely. If it all goes according to plan, they could maybe find themselves in the Conference Finals next May. That said, there was no good reason to make a 5 year, $60 million commitment to Marcin Gortat. Large five year contracts are risky for any player, and basically they should only be given to stars. Gortat is a nice player, but he's no star. A three or four year deal would have seemed much more palatable.


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The 20 best prospects in the 2014 NBA Draft

6/25/2014

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The 2014 NBA Draft is probably the most anticipated draft since 2007. The expectations are high, and I have tried to soberly cover the most important aspects of it over the last year.

My own opinion of this draft class is slightly different than many scouts and draft experts. I think it’s a very deep draft, but I’m not convinced that there are multiple future superstars in this class. If I had to make a guess, I would say this draft class will be more similar to the deep draft class of 1999, as opposed to the superstar-laden class of 2003.

Joel Embiid's recent injury, unfortunately, helped confirm this feeling for me. Embiid was the one guy this year that seemed almost guaranteed to be a truly dominant NBA player if he could remain healthy. But the serious injury concerns surrounding Embiid knocked him off his mantle, and lumped him together with a handful of other very promising, but not incredible, top prospects.

With Embiid’s injury concerns, there’s no longer a large gap in quality between the five best prospects at the top of this draft. You could make a sound argument for any one of them being selected first. You could also make an argument for why each one of them could turn out to be a bust.

Here’s my list of the 20 best prospects in this draft, and where I would select them, with the caveat that I don’t have any information about their medical histories or personal dispositions. So much good stuff has already been written about these players by many different people, but I have added in a few words about each prospect to point out what may not been previously stressed enough:

1. It’s exceedingly difficult to know where to rank Joel Embiid without an informed medical opinion, which I don’t have. I still rank him first, although I’m reticent to do so, because a healthy Embiid is easily the best prospect in the draft, and the equal of Anthony Davis in terms of long-term potential.

It was surprising that more people did not realize how special Embiid was during the NCAA season. He clearly has the chance to be one of the best players in the game, and an all-time great. Embiid’s skill level can best be compared to Hakeem Olajuwon and David Robinson. No current true center in the NBA has his level of talent, and no player in this draft comes close to him in terms of upside.

But Embiid’s injury concerns are far too scary to dismiss. A broken bone in his back and foot within a few months of each other are terribly ominous signs. I don’t fear the worst, but I fear something that could be close to it. This might not be a Greg Oden scenario, but any situation at all comparable to that is mortifying to think about.

Still, Embiid is so good that even if I felt I was only going to get 5 years out of him at nearly full strength I would probably take him first. Several other prospects in this draft are exciting, but none seem to have the superstar potential that Embiid possesses. 

We have to remember that Bill Walton was an MVP and led Portland to a championship before injuries decimated his prime. Likewise, centers such as Yao Ming and Zydrunas Ilgauskas had fantastic careers in spite of similar medical issues. If we expect Embiid to make substantial contributions before injuries derail his career, he unquestionably should be taken first. There’s not a Kevin Durant option in this draft, like there was in 2007 alongside Oden. If Embiid’s career is relatively short, but dominant, he’s a worthy #1 selection.

But, right now, only qualified medical specialists can appropriately speculate on Embiid’s long-term health. His murky medical situation makes this draft seem strangely incomplete, because we don’t know what doctors think about his expected injury risk over the next five to ten years. Hopefully the medical prognosis is at least somewhat positive and optimistic, but if it isn’t, then Embiid is too risky to be selected with one of the first few picks.

2. Jabari Parker is probably the safest option in the draft. He’s the prospect most likely to be an excellent pro for the next 15 years. His NBA future, in contrast to Embiid’s, seems reassuring to project.

In the first month of Parker’s freshman season, he looked to be the best player in college basketball. That’s a hell of a thing for an 18 year old to pull off. He proceeded to cool off a bit, but the fact that there were sustained stretches where Parker looked like Durant 2.0, in terms of freshman dominance, is an auspicious sign.

At 6’8” and 250 pounds, Parker’s athleticism is underrated for a player his size. He’s a big kid, and his exceptional feel for the game allows him to utilize his body offensively in ways that most forwards could never dream of doing. For a young player, his offensive game is staggeringly mature, and his scoring ability is at an elite level.

Parker’s defense isn’t good, but his skill level in that area isn’t as bad as advertised. He seems to have the drive and discipline to develop into a fine defensive player. If we want to be critical of Parker’s game, it’s just as easy to be discouraged by his poor passing numbers. He only had one game in 2014 where he recorded more than one assist, despite being the focal point of the Duke offense.

Nitpicking aside, Parker seems likely to be a stellar pro, and an offensive dynamo. The biggest fear I have is that his physical superiority will not be an overwhelmingly positive factor for him in the NBA. But that seems doubtful. Parker is a safe pick, and has the most star potential in this draft besides Embiid.

3. Marcus Smart challenges Parker for being the safest pick in the draft. Smart is 225 pounds with a 6’9” wingspan, and there are not many point guards in the NBA who can match him physically. Smart is a thick, strong guard who likes to defend and score by using his strength and size. That’s a hell of a skill to have when you’re that big, and it translates perfectly to the next level.

Defensively, Smart terrorized teams with his aggressive play at Oklahoma State. His rebounding and steal numbers are exceptional for a point guard. Offensively, his forceful aggression sometimes seemed reckless and unsettling for a floor general – but frankly, his bulldozer mentality worked well most of the time.

The main concern with Smart is whether he’s a point guard. I think he is. I also think he’ll grow into the position the way Chauncey Billups did, and gradually become a more refined offensive decision maker. But Smart should be a defensive monster right out of the gate, and be able to defend both guard positions effectively. While his game might appear aesthetically rough, Smart is likely to be an All-Star some day for that very reason.

4. Andrew Wiggins doesn’t look like the superstar he was purported to be, coming out of high school. That’s not a bad thing, just reality. Wiggins’ freshman year at Kansas was decent, but rarely spectacular. He put up solid numbers and had some big games, but there were few glimpses of sustained dominance like we saw with Embiid and Parker.

But Wiggins’ athleticism is legit. This is a superior athlete, even in an NBA setting. The question going forward is how well Wiggins will be able to use his exceptional physical abilities against pro players. He projects to be an excellent on-ball defender, and his explosiveness should allow him to score at a respectable rate. But will he ever be a consistently dominant force offensively? His freshman year showed no signs of that, even with all the athletic skills.

I think Wiggins will have a good career, but he’ll probably be a player more in the mold of Michael Finley than Tracy McGrady. The scary thing is that if his offensive game fails to develop much, which is possible, then Wiggins might not be all that impactful. With the first or second pick in the draft, that’s a substantial risk to be taking. 

5. Dante Exum is mainly considered a top-tier prospect because he played very well against the best players in his age group last summer. That’s not a bad thing, but also not an ideal way to gauge a prospect that could be picked in the top three.

The general consensus that Exum is an elite prospect comes from those limited minutes against adequate competition, and the hope that he could be a huge 6’5” point guard in the NBA. So it’s difficult for me to rank Exum higher than here. The less I know, the more worried I become.

If Exum’s quickness, scoring touch and sense of the floor have been overstated because of the predominately weak competition he usually played against, we might be looking at a player who’s not as good as we expect.

But Exum’s positives are truly encouraging – he seems to have natural scoring ability, and his size is exceptional. I certainly can’t blame a team for selecting him early, especially if they have done their homework, but the unknown quality surrounding Exum is unnerving. Nonetheless, I like his chances of becoming a very good pro guard, and maybe a star.

6. Kyle Anderson is an exciting and unique prospect because of his passing ability. The “slow” pace of his game is much more of a plus than a minus – offensively he just breaks down his defender with his size and court vision and, defensively, his large frame allows him to cover the floor more nimbly than he’s credited for.

Anderson’s numbers are borderline outrageous for a 6’8” player – 15 points, 9 rebounds and 6.5 assists per game this year at UCLA. Players this big rarely can pass the ball like Anderson has proven he can. If a team can’t utilize his special skills in the NBA, it’s probably more of coaching issue than anything else. Anderson should have a long, solid career.

7. Like Anderson, his teammate at UCLA, Jordan Adams put up very impressive statistics in college. Considered non-athletic, he averaged 23 points, 7 rebounds, 3.5 steals and 3 assists per 40 minutes this season. Those numbers are simply superior to most shooting guards who are usually considered top prospects, and imply Adams' athleticism is better than advertised.

He might not end up being an amazing pro, but that is what the numbers indicate Adams should be. I trust the numbers enough to think at the very least he should be significantly productive at the next level.

8. Elfrid Payton has been rising up draft boards because of reportedly excellent workouts, but based on numbers alone he deserves to be selected in the top ten. Like Smart, Payton is an aggressive point guard who scores, rebounds and defends well.

Payton played at Louisiana-Lafayette, so questions about the competition he faced are valid, but advanced metrics peg him as one of the better point guard prospects of the last few years. The numbers could be wrong, but like in Adams’ case, they’re probably not completely wrong. Payton’s shooting stroke is dubious, but there’s enough promise in his game to overlook the flaws and select him early in the first round.

9. Relatively unproven, Clint Capela is an intriguing European prospect. At 6’10”, with freakish jumping ability and a huge wingspan, there are moments where Capela could be mistaken for a Swiss version of young Amare Stoudemire. That such a resemblance is there makes Capela deserving of being selected in the lottery.

Visceral explosiveness is one of the more intriguing skills a big man can have, and Capela has it. His numbers are solid and what you would expect – he scores well close to the basket, rebounds strongly, and blocks shots. Capela is raw, and maybe not ready for the NBA. But his upside is tremendously high, and that can’t be dismissed.

10. For such a young player, Aaron Gordon is an incredibly impressive defender. He led the NCAA in defensive win shares this year. However, I’m worried that his offense might never come close to his defense in the NBA, when he faces other elite athletes night after night.

Gordon is bigger, but he reminds me of how Michael Kidd-Gilchrist was considered as a prospect. Kidd-Gilchrist is clearly an excellent NBA defender, but there’s a good chance he will never develop into much more than that. Gordon has a higher upside than Kidd-Gilchrist – he’s both a great leaper and passer for his size – but his lack of offensive touch and shooting ability makes me doubtful he will become a star. Nonetheless, he seems likely to be a solid player in the league.

11. A renowned prospect in the Adriatic League the past few seasons, Dario Saric has already proven that he’s a hell of a player at high levels of European basketball, an impressive feat for a 20 year old. Unfortunately, he’ll be staying across the pond for at least another two years, which has to be considered a legitimate drawback for whatever team drafts him.
 
A 6’9” forward with excellent court awareness and ball-handling skills, Saric has the intelligence and physical skills necessary to affect all facets of the game. He possesses the flexibility for his position, an attribute you ideally want a forward to have. Saric can score, rebound, pass and defend, all at an above average level. The main concern is whether his European success will translate into NBA success, but with his all-encompassing game, there seems a strong chance it will. Despite not coming to the NBA for a few years, Saric deserves to be selected early.

12. Standing 6’11”, 280 pounds, Josuf Nurkic is one of the toughest prospects to gauge in this draft. The reason for that is in Europe, and specifically the Adriatic League, there simply are not many big men with the vertical explosiveness to effectively defend a player of Nurkic’s size. In the NBA, that will be a different story. 

Nurkic’s thrives in playing a horizontal game, not a vertical one, and in Europe it has served him well. For a 19 year old he has a terrific offensive arsenal, and a real feel for how to score. His PER against decent competition is exceptional. 

But Nurkic is not a leaper, and his girth might prove to be much less of a tool when he goes against the best athletes in the world. I fear we might be looking at a player more like Bryant “Big Country” Reeves than Nikola Peković. That is a risk worth taking in the lottery, however, because if Nurkic can figure out how to use his body against NBA big men, he could be a fantastic center. 

13. After being dismissed from UNC, P.J. Hairston lit up the D-League this year, averaging 22 points a game over 26 contests. I consider this an accomplishment with merit, because the D-League has more athletic, mature defenders than the NCAA.

Hairston’s draft journey to this point has been unusual, and I don’t pretend to know the gritty details (frankly, I doubt most NBA teams even know them.) Regardless, Hairston is a 6’5”, 230 pound shooting guard – his physical package and scoring skills alone warrant him being selected in the lottery, no matter what path he took to get here.

14. Noah Vonleh is another young freshman with impressive size. He rebounds very well, and has shown a touch from the perimeter. But there is something awkward about his game, and that seems unlikely to go away. When compared to Capela’s fluidity, Vonleh often seems stuck in quicksand, and he turns the ball over too much.

However, because he’s only 18, it’s easy to see Vonleh outgrow some of his awkwardness and become a more refined player, particularly offensively. Like with Gordon, though, I’m skeptical about him being able to evolve to the point where his game becomes complete enough for him to be considered a star forward. There are too many players in the NBA with similar skills for that to likely happen.

15. At 6’9”, 240 pounds, with a 7’4” wingspan, Adreian Payne certainly has the look of an effective NBA big man. The 23 year old stayed four years at Michigan State under Tom Izzo, and in this case, that can be seen as a positive as much as a negative.

Because of his maturity, Payne sometimes seemed a man against boys this season (for instance, he scored 41 points in 24 minutes in Michigan State’s first game of the NCAA tournament.) To what extent his physical dominance will translate to the next level is questionable, but the fact that he developed a perimeter game at his size means that Payne’s upside is probably higher than most people think. I might have him ranked too low.

16. T.J. Warren is one of those fun players who scores profusely in college. When you average 25 points a game in the ACC, as a 6’8” sophomore forward, you deserve draft attention.

The problem for Warren is whether his innate scoring ability will be enough to carry him to serious NBA success. While he has been magnificent at putting the ball in the basket, nothing else about Warren’s game tends to stand out. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, but it does make you pause. Warren rebounds, defends and shoots threes at only an adequate level. In college, that was fine. In the NBA, I’m not so sure it will be, but am looking forward to finding how Warren develops as a pro.

17. Considered one of the top prospects in the draft by some people, Julius Randle strikes me as a grinding power forward in the pros. That’s a useful player to have on your team, but not worthy of a top 10 pick, especially if reports of a medical issue in his foot are valid.

Randle’s strongest skill is his tenacity. He’s bullish on the glass, and likewise will force his way to the hoop to score. But he’s not long for a power forward, and players like him - who don’t block many shots or collect many steals in college - usually are not good pros. Randle’s numbers in those two categories is very low, and a legitimate reason for concern.

18. At 7’5”, 360 pounds, Sim Bhullar is literally the huge sleeper in this draft, and his main problem is that he may never be given a real chance to showcase his skills in the NBA.

Players of Bhullar’s size are rare, and they affect the geometry of games in ways that are hard to calculate. Having that much size in the middle of the floor is disruptive in any level of basketball, including the NBA. However, scouts seem to ignore this fact to focus on his negative qualities, so Bhullar might go undrafted.

Averaging 16 points, 12 rebounds, 5 blocks and 2 assists per 40 minutes this season for New Mexico State, Bhullar has an excellent sense of the court for a player his size. He is a sufficiently skilled big man, not an unrefined project. In the NBA, he should still be able to regularly overpower players, and be a consistent force in the middle of the paint, as long as his minutes are kept in check. With his physical makeup, Bhullar does not need to play 25 minutes a night to be a highly useful part of a roster. He could be an ideal bench piece for a team that knows how to take advantage of size and floor spacing. 

19. Russ Smith is the opposite of Bhullar – he’s considered a bit too small to be taken seriously as a guard in the NBA. But such thinking strikes me at foolish – at 6’0”, 160 pounds Smith is indeed small, but there are other effective small players in the league.

Players like Earl Boykins, Nate Robinson and Isaiah Thomas have taught us that it’s unwise to undervalue small guards who have elite skills such as Smith. His career at Louisville was illustrious and, as it went on, Smith evolved into being more of a playmaker than just a pure scorer. According to Ken Pomeroy’s ratings, he has been the best college basketball player in the country in each of the last two seasons.

Smith should be able provide instant offense and defense off a NBA team’s bench. My only concern with his size is the possibly heightened injury risk, but that concern is minor. Smith will likely be a second round steal.

20. K.J. McDaniels is another great athlete. He blocked almost 3 shots per game last year for Clemson, despite being only 6’5”, 195 pounds. That’s an impressive feat, and a prime example of a prospect proving his athleticism in a tangible way on the stat sheet.

The hope with McDaniels is that his superior leaping ability and speed will translate into a defensive prowess in the pros, and that his offense can be carried along with it. He’s skinny and perhaps without a defined position, but reportedly has the work effort and motor to make up for those shortcomings. His improvements during his junior season at Clemson helps back up those claims.

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The awesomely balanced Spurs

6/17/2014

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As someone who strongly believes in the 80/20 rule and how it applies to successful NBA roster building, at first glance the NBA champion Spurs seem to be a bit of an exception. But, on closer examination, they really aren't. 

Instead of having two or three great players to carry most of the load, the Spurs have four (Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Kawhi Leonard and Manu Ginobili.) And because they have four great players, each one of them is not required to play as many minutes as "normal" star players, or do quite as much on the floor.

Since 2012 we have all been lauding San Antonio's balanced system - the fluidity of the offense, the still formidable defense, the minutes allotment, the perfect complementary bench pieces, the incredible coaching, etc. It's been a pleasure to behold. It's also very hard to pull off, especially in regards to chemistry. There is a reason no other organization has successfully replicated it. 

I do not think San Antonio's feats are an exception to 80/20 rules as much as a perfectly balanced amalgam of them. Although this "current version" of the Spurs has won only one championship, they have been the best NBA team over the last three seasons. They have done it by still having great players, and simultaneously making subtle team management decisions better than everybody else. It is difficult not to be impressed, and even more difficult to imitate.

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What "top heavy" means for the 2014 NBA Draft

5/14/2014

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One of the things I like about the 2014 NBA Draft is the amount of prospects that seem to have a good chance of becoming All-Stars. That has probably been why there has been so much talk about it being a "top heavy" draft. The 2014 Draft seemingly has more potential stars than any other draft class this decade. 

Whether it actually turns out that way, of course, is anyone's guess. 

But the top prospects in this draft look promising, and this is what I mean when I say that: there are seven players in this class that I think have at least a 50% chance of appearing in an All-Star game someday. 

By comparison, in the 2013 Draft I only thought Nerlens Noel, Victor Oladipo and Otto Porter fit that criteria. And in the 2012 and 2011 Drafts, respectively, I thought only Anthony Davis and Kyrie Irving fit that bill.

So seven prospects with at least a 50/50 shot of becoming an All-Star is a lot of talent, and a big upgrade compared to the last few drafts.

A healthy Joel Embiid is easily the best prospect in this class, but then there are six other players that I deem to be very promising. Really, not much has changed in regards to the top prospects since the beginning of 2014. There are still the same four top players after Embiid: Jabari Parker, Andrew Wiggins, Marcus Smart and Dante Exum. I have a hard time deciding who I like best out of that group of four after Embiid; they are all close to each other in my eyes.
 
Then we have the two UCLA guys: Kyle Anderson and Jordan Adams. They seem likely to both be drafted much lower than they deserve, particularly Adams. Anderson and Adams should prove interesting studies, because the advanced stats community has largely endorsed them as lottery picks since their freshman year at UCLA, but most scouts have never held them in such high regard. I expect them both to be very good NBA players, and potential first round steals.

Besides Embiid, none of the top prospects scream "superstar" to me, and there is a good chance that at least one of them is a bust, but still there is a lot to like about the top of this draft. Seven excellent prospects is quite a bounty.

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Why the 2013 NBA Draft was not as bad as you think

4/27/2014

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This year's rookie class caught a lot of flak for being really bad, but the truth is that the long-term outlook of the 2013 NBA Draft class is significantly better than most people think. This is certainly the case in terms of star potential, when judged through the objective lens of PER.

Obviously, the top of the draft was largely a disaster, as I went over last month. But Nerlens Noel is still likely going to be an excellent NBA player, and the same can be said of Victor Oladipo. My guess is both those guys end up being All-Stars, and the top players from this draft. 

But there are other players that showed real long-term promise. The important thing to remember is that every draft (yes, even the 2000 Draft) ends up producing at least 3 All-Stars, and there is no reason to think that this draft class will be any different.

Michael Carter-Williams had an erratic but exciting rookie campaign, and finished with a solid 15.5 PER.  Meanwhile, Trey Burke's 12.6 PER was slightly below the benchmark I like to see - but since he is a promising young point guard his mediocre PER is more forgivable. It seems quite possible that Carter-Williams or Burke could play in an All-Star game some day.

There were also several rookie big men who put up decent to exceptional numbers in limited minutes. The most impressive of the bunch was Mason Plumlee, who had one of the best rookie years - in terms of PER -  that we have seen in the last decade. If he can continue to have such efficiency when his minutes increase, Plumlee will become a very valuable player.

Gorgui Dieng, Kelly Olynyk and Jeff Withey also posted 15+ PERs and showed flashes of excellence. Obviously, all three of these players could go either way at this point, but in all likelihood at least one of them will have a good NBA career.

And we have said nothing of other potentially solid NBA players like Steven Adams, Nate Wolters, Tim Hardaway, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Rudy Gobert - just to name a few. 

The jury is still out on most young players in their first and second years in the league. If they do not hit the 15/13 PER rookie benchmark they are unlikely to ever become exceptional, but they can still have substantive value somewhere down the line. A few unmentioned rookies that we hardly noticed this year are likely to "come out of nowhere" sooner or later (look at what Troy Daniels did for Houston the other night.) 

Improvement in the NBA, for the large majority of its players, is an interesting and somewhat random thing. So much is based on timing and the system a player finds himself in. Only the truly exceptional players seem to be able to rise above this fact consistently. But there will be other guys from the 2013 Draft class that surely will end up having a sizable NBA impact, we just don't know who they are yet.

Probably the rookie with the hardest expectations to fill going forward will be Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Greek Freak started the season so well that he got everybody in the NBA excited, but as  Harlan Schreiber skillfully pointed out, his low PER tells another story. The Bucks might be wise to try to trade Antetokounmpo this Summer, when his value is probably at its highest (obviously that is unlikely to happen.) 

Ten years from now the 2013 NBA Draft will likely to be regarded as having been relatively weak, but not an outright disaster like the 2000 Draft. However, it does not appear as promising as the 2014 Draft. I will talk more about that subject soon. 

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The real 2014 NBA season starts now

4/17/2014

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As we gear up for the playoffs - the "real" NBA season - I think once again of the same old question: what did the regular season really teach us about who the best teams are? Before the '13-'14 regular season began, I figured it was likely that Miami would win the Eastern Conference Finals, and probably be the slight favorite to win the Finals.

I figured out west that OKC was probably the slight favorite to win the Western Conference Finals, but that the Clippers, Spurs and maybe even Houston would be serious contenders as well.

And that still looks to be the case. Despite showing us many small details, the '13-'14 regular season clarified nothing as to who truly the best teams are. The playoffs will show us the truth. It should be fun to watch.

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Embiid’s injury conjures up images of Noel’s draft dip 

3/20/2014

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Joel Embiid’s back injury is obviously a concern, but nonetheless I have been surprised that many 2014 NBA mock drafts now have Andrew Wiggins and/or Jabari Parker being drafted ahead of Embiid.

This is a blatant overreaction to an injury we know little about.

Yes, any type of back injury is serious, but Matt McCarthy did a good job putting Embiid’s injury in context and pointing out that just because past big men have seen back injuries hamper their careers does not mean the same thing is destined to happen to Embiid.

Andre Drummond recovered nicely from a similar back issue last year, and nobody seems overly concerned about his NBA future.  Embiid probably has an even higher upside than Drummond, and that means he should be the first pick in June - unless a legitimate red flag is raised by NBA doctors. Hopefully this does not happen.

The current Embiid situation, of course, brings back images of Nerlens Noel falling all the way down to the sixth pick in the 2013 Draft.  At the time, frankly, most of us were so shocked to see Noel drop that far that we just kind of acknowledged the insanity of it and quickly moved on.  But Noel’s fall to 6th – when he should have been taken 1st - was truly stunning.

Noel’s momentous drop looks more horrible today than it did on draft night – even though Noel still has not played a game.  The players taken before Noel, with the exception of Victor Oladipo, are worse than we thought.

Meanwhile, despite his injury, Noel still is probably going to be an excellent NBA player. We will give Orlando a pass – for now - but the other four teams that bypassed Noel at the top of the 2013 Draft clearly made drafting mistakes. Let’s look at the players, besides Oladipo, that were embarrassingly taken ahead of Noel: 

-Anthony Bennett has been bombarded endlessly for his futile rookie season, and the criticism is warranted.  Number one picks cannot have a single digit PER.  It’s inexcusable.  Bennett certainly may become a useful NBA player, but when you are drafted that high you need to turn into a star.  Otherwise you are a bust. Barring an unprecedented turnaround in production, Bennett is a bust.

-Many people, including myself, were high on Otto Porter before the draft. I thought he would make an All-Star game or two. And while I firmly believed the Wizards should have selected Noel at #3, I at least saw where Washington was coming from when they took Porter.

But Porter’s rookie season has been a disaster.  He was injured at the start of the season, and when he returned Randy Wittman never gave him consistent playing time.  Wittman is a lousy coach, and certainly should have played Porter much more than he has, but nonetheless Porter has looked overmatched when he has been on the floor.  His PER is lower than Bennett’s.  He might bounce back next year if he gets more playing time, but it’s highly doubtful he will ever make an All-Star game appearance.

-Charlotte drafting Cody Zeller at #4 over Noel seemed like a cruel joke when it happened, and it still does. Zeller is not bad, but he will probably never be very good, either. His talent level is significantly inferior to Noel’s. This was an inexcusable pick by the Bobcats.

-The same thing can be said about Phoenix’s selection of Alex Len at #5 over Noel.  I’m sorry, but you cannot give Ryan McDonough executive of the year when he decides to select Len over Noel. Len also has a single digit PER, and if you are wondering why I am stressing PER so much it’s because it is the most important stat to gauge a rookie player’s future chances at stardom.

So Nerlens Noel, still likely to be a future NBA All-Star, was passed over five times.  Four of the players picked before him appear to be on their way to bustdom. And New Orleans, the team that drafted Noel sixth, immediately traded him and a future first rounder for Jrue Holiday in the misguided hopes of making the playoffs (that was another absolutely terrible move.)

The top of the 2013 NBA Draft proved once again that most NBA front offices know nothing special about drafting.  Nerlens Noel never - never - should have fallen out of the top three. His drop to 6th was part of some of the craziest, and most incompetent, drafting in recent history.

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How to simply put an end to tanking

3/5/2014

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I wrote a few words for B/R on how the NBA can make tanking obsolete, with ease. Click here to read it.

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Wiggins and the high school hype machine

2/27/2014

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I have a new article up on B/R about Andrew Wiggins, and why we should stop trusting high school scouting reports when it comes to NBA superstar potential. I will admit I swooned over Wiggins like everybody else last August -there was so much positive hype surrounding his potential I just kind of assumed Wiggins would inevitably be the #1 prospect in the 2014 NBA Draft.

I was wrong, and I don't plan on making assumptions like that about high school players again, especially if they are guards or swingmen. If you want to have some perverse fun, check out RSCI's ranking of the best high school prospects every year since 1998, via DraftExpress.

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