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What "top heavy" means for the 2014 NBA Draft

5/14/2014

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One of the things I like about the 2014 NBA Draft is the amount of prospects that seem to have a good chance of becoming All-Stars. That has probably been why there has been so much talk about it being a "top heavy" draft. The 2014 Draft seemingly has more potential stars than any other draft class this decade. 

Whether it actually turns out that way, of course, is anyone's guess. 


But the top prospects in this draft look promising, and this is what I mean when I say that: there are seven players in this class that I think have at least a 50% chance of appearing in an All-Star game someday. 

By comparison, in the 2013 Draft I only thought Nerlens Noel, Victor Oladipo and Otto Porter fit that criteria. And in the 2012 and 2011 Drafts, respectively, I thought only Anthony Davis and Kyrie Irving fit that bill.

So seven prospects with at least a 50/50 shot of becoming an All-Star is a lot of talent, and a big upgrade compared to the last few drafts.

A healthy Joel Embiid is easily the best prospect in this class, but then there are six other players that I deem to be very promising. Really, not much has changed in regards to the top prospects since the beginning of 2014. There are still the same four top players after Embiid: Jabari Parker, Andrew Wiggins, Marcus Smart and Dante Exum. I have a hard time deciding who I like best out of that group of four after Embiid; they are all close to each other in my eyes.

 
Then we have the two UCLA guys: Kyle Anderson and Jordan Adams. They seem likely to both be drafted much lower than they deserve, particularly Adams. Anderson and Adams should prove interesting studies, because the advanced stats community has largely endorsed them as lottery picks since their freshman year at UCLA, but most scouts have never held them in such high regard. I expect them both to be very good NBA players, and potential first round steals.

Besides Embiid, none of the top prospects scream "superstar" to me, and there is a good chance that at least one of them is a bust, but still there is a lot to like about the top of this draft. Seven excellent prospects is quite a bounty.

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