The cream rises to the top

5/14/2012

The best teams are almost always those with the most star power. If you have two or three guys on your roster who are exceptional, you have a great chance of advancing far in the playoffs. If you only have one player who is very good, things are much tougher - no matter how "deep" a roster you have.

Interestingly Dallas won it all last year with only one fantastic player, completely defying the last paragraph. It was a hell of a thing. Just don't expect it to happen again anytime soon.

Last year's abberation mainly happened because Nowitzki was the best player in the world during the playoffs, LeBron choked terribly in the Finals, and Miami's chemistry floundered. This is taking nothing away from Dallas - they deserved to win and it was incredibly fulfilling watching them do so - but last year's Finals was really more about Miami's stunning failures as opposed to Dallas' fantastic team play.

This year will not be like last year - unless the Celtics somehow conjure up some insane Ubuntu magic, which seems very unlikely. This year will be back to normal.

We have an unusually large amount of top-loaded rosters this year. Miami, OKC, San Antonio, the Lakers, and the Clippers are all very star-heavy. Not coincidentally they are the favorites (probably in the order I just wrote.)

Here, according to baskeball-reference.com, are the star players on each remaining playoff team with PERs above 20 during the regular season. It's a very top-heavy year.

Miami: James 30.7, Wade 26.3

OKC: Durant 26.2, Westbrook 22.9, Harden 21.1

SAS: Ginobili 24.1, Duncan 22.5 , Parker 22.0 (Splitter & Mills also have high PERs in limited minutes, but we can't consider them important enough to put in this select company.)

Lakers: Bynum 22.9, Bryant 21.9, Gasol 20.5

Clippers: Paul 27.0, Griffin 23.4

Boston: Garnett 20.4

Philly: Lou Williams 20.2

Indy: no players above 20 PER

There are some very high numbers there. No offense to last year's Dallas team, but I doubt they would have made it through the West this year.

2 Comments

joe b

5/17/2012 03:03:21 am

there is an intangible factor that explains last yr's dallas team, it was what rattled the miami team, the fact that miami looked across and saw a team that wanted to win more than them, despite having less talent. This yr's west field features better spurs and thunder teams, the latter of which would have presented significant trouble for the mavs. But what is to say that that dallas team would not have played up to their level or just adjusted psychologically which they did all year. The spurs are better this year, but I think their drive this yr is filling the void that dallas' left after last year. Could both teams as we know them exist in the same league? I don't recall a team with the drive of the mavs in the last ten yrs, the 08 celtics were not close IMO, or didn't have the chemistry together to match what dallas had been brewing for 5 years since they lost to miami in 06.. Will is a factor in sports, it doesn't usually win championships by itself, but I think it explains a lot of last year's mavs team and how it effected opponents.

Tim link

5/17/2012 05:55:57 am

No doubt the Mavs last year were driven and had great composure, and they were a hell of a team, but a lot of things fell their way. That's normal - championship teams often have things fall thing their way. That can make all the difference. It also helps to have the best player in the playoffs, which Dallas had last year in Nowitzki. Ironically there are quite a few parallels with that 06 Miami team - the best player in the playoffs, a relatively weak supporting cast, and a good deal of things falling their way.

NBA Focus

The cream rises to the top

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